Saturday, August 25, 2012

Are you the success story, or the "Judas Goat"?

A judas goat leading lambs to the slaughter
A judas goat leading lambs to the slaughter (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
People in suspect schemes often defend their pet scheme with the "it paid me" defense. It is a fallacy. Sometimes, they don't even get paid. It's "my friend / my upline / my relative / someone I know got paid".

Apparently they never heard of the "Judas Goat".

Judas Goat is a trained goat that goes out, and leads other goats or lamb to a specific destination, often, a slaughter house.

In general, the judas goat's life is spared while the rest of the flock are slaughtered.

That is exactly how a Ponzi or a pyramid scheme works; some people will get paid, the rest gets fleeced, but they don't know it yet. And they may be taught to bring in even *more* people, "share the wealth / opportunity", so to speak.

In other words, in a pyramid scheme, everybody is a judas goat.

Friday, August 24, 2012

WARNING: "reload" scams targeting Zeek Rewards Ponzi victims

On the Internet there are a LOT of "opportunities" pledging their innocence, and going after Zeek victims any way. Enough so, that North Carolina Department of Justice, Attorney General's Office, issued a special alert warning any Zeek victims of falling for a "reload scam".

One such company, whose name starts with a V, even announced a "rescue plan" for all Zeek affiliates. After the outcry, they quickly reversed course and claimed they are being mistaken for another scam.

Another company, whose URL starts with U, is far less worried about their image. Why? Because they are a penny auction site too.

But then comes the ultimate shills... or self-delusionals... who believe that Zeek's innocent and should be restarted. These are the people who created a petition on Change.org, and later, on Whitehouse.gov. And people signed them because they are gullible, that they believed their uplines when their uplines sprouted garbage about "the competition told lies to the government about us".

And now, these people want your DONATION. That's right, they need YOUR MONEY to help them restart a scam, whose owner had already capitulated.

How to stop (or at least slow down) online Ponzi schemes

The Zeek Rewards ponzi scheme shut down by SEC is the largest Ponzi scheme in the US ever, involving up to a million victims. While it only involved $600 Million dollars, and Madoff and Stanford involved billions, most victims of Madoff and Stanford are rich, while victims of Zeek are mostly middle class everyman.

Such a scheme are organized into FOUR levels:

Mastermind and "cadre" -- the one who setup the whole scheme, and the inner circle that implemented it. They KNOW it's a scam, and they are out to scam people.

Core shills -- those who who were first recruited, usually "MLM Stars / Recruiter" with established group of downlines. They know it's probably not legitimate, but they will drag the judas goats into it any way. And they have plausible deniability, or they will pull their team out just before the endgame so they will be thanked instead of getting tarred & feathered.

(See Six types of MLMers)

Judas Goats -- goats that will "lead" sheep to slaughterhouse, and would be spared themselves, judas goats were told by core shills to recruit as many people as possible, and make plenty of money in the process. And they believe it's legitimate because core shills told them it is. They will gladly demonstrate how much money they made.

Sheeple -- the victims, 98-99% of all participants, who were convinced by the judas goats (who they trusted) to join (and sometimes, become Judas goats themselves).

In the past, Ponzi prosecution had been limited to the mastermind and cadre.  The core shills were almost never charged.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Bad Argument: the shifting goalpost

The best example of "shifting goalpost" is the "No True Scotsman" fallacy. However, there are many others. It's such that they are very popular fallacies used by defenders of suspect schemes, when they need to "revise" their statement when critics point out holes in their reasoning or evidence.

The proper name for this fallacy is "ad hoc rescue", where the arguer keep revising the original argument by adding more and more exceptions. Though the term "shifting goalpost" is a better visual metaphor. It may take a form similar to this. 

B: You can make legally a ton of money with Acme XYZ! Just work the system!
A: But Acme XYZ requires you to put in money first. That's investment, not work. 
B: Uh, right! Invest in Acme XYZ and make lots of money!
A: But Acme XYZ insists they are not an investment. Says so here _______.
B: Uh... You just don't understand the system! It's new hybrid! 

B just keep changing his argument that he got backed into a corner, and had to invent some new sh__.


Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

UPDATE: The reddit "confession" is probably a hoax

Previously there was a "confession" on reddit by a person who claimed to be top echelon in the Zeek Ponzi scheme.

I had copied it here and posted it as I didn't have time to analyze it for how true it is. The initial reaction seems to be 'it fits what we know'.

As it turns out, it fits a little TOO WELL.

Two of the responses from this alleged confessor did not help.

Then I check the image itself, as many people pointed out some logical errors on it.

I performed "Error level analysis" on it. It shows some definite manipulation around the "VIP Points" section. (Not that I am a forensic image analyst)

I am now quite sure that the picture itself was real, but the VIP points were embellished.

7 Step Test of MLM company

Kevin Thompson, a MLM attorney, outlined 7 criteria that makes a MLM company successful. I thought... the same 7 criteria would make a great "test" whether that MLM company would work at all.

1) Leadership
2) Product
3) Design
4) Systems
5) Compliance
6) Capital
7) Field

Rate your opportunity A+ to F in each of the 7 categories, be honest, be tough. If it fails or is below average in even ONE of the 7 areas, perhaps you should consider something more... mature.