Scam Tactics: The Galileo Gambit

Does everyone remember who Galileo Galilei is? He's the one who taught heliocentrism (the sun is the center, not Earth) and was persecuted by the Roman Catholic Church because heliocentrism ran counter to the Biblical literalism of the time (that Earth is the center and everything revolves around Earth).

So what is Galileo Gambit? An argument tactic that combines three separate fallacies (appeal to minority, appeal to authority, conditional fallacy) in one concise package. 

They made fun of Galileo, and he was right

They make fun of me, therefore I am right.

Galileo Gambit is generally used to dismiss the "widely held truth". Creationists and Climate change deniers often use Galileo Gambit and claiming persecution. (Indeed, Rick Perry sparked controversy when he claimed that science on climate change was 'not settled yet' in 2011 and added "Galileo got outvoted for a spell")

There is a variation called Semmelweis Gambit that was often used by "alternative medicine", or otherwise known by its less complimentary acronym, SCAM (supplemental, complementary, and alternative medicine).  Ignaz Semmelweis was a doctor that provided the start of germ theory in 1800's Vienna, but his views were not accepted during his time and he died a broken man, with his views only came into acceptance after his death.

Another variation is known as "Three Stages of Truth" often misattributed to Arthur Schopenhauer (who never wrote such a thing). Let us look at an example:

Here is one form of it used in a recent... suspect scheme (that had since collapsed.)

Anti-Scam: Rough Guide to Spotting Shady Opportunities, Part 1 of 3.

This guide is an adaptation of "A Rough Guide to Spotting Bad Science" by "Compound Interest", converted for spotting "shady opportunities". For length reasons, this is presented in 3 parts. This is part 1 of 3.

A Rough Guide To Spotting Shady Opportunities  (part 1 of 3)

Shady Opportunities are out there, waiting to take your money on promises of fabulous income... if you hand over your money first. There are twelve signs. Obviously a shady opportunity may not have all the signs, but the more signs you spot, the more shady the opportunity is.

1) Sensationalized Headlines

Headlines are often click bait or link bait, such as "everyone makes money" or "How to turn $289 into $1040 guaranteed"

As Carl Sagan said, "extraordinary claim requires extraordinary evidence". Don't believe the headlines, even if they are made/repeated by people you trust. Remember, they could have been duped. If they don't bother asking for extraordinary evidence, then you cannot trust their judgement on this specific matter.

2) Misinterpreted results

Nothing beats DIRECT access to the data. If you listen to someone's pitch, you are listening to his or her version of what s/he is telling you, which may be just a sales pitch with certain amount of untruth... truth as s/he know it, or the actual truth. You don't know which one it is, or even how much of each.

Without the actual data, any interpretation is just that... an interpretation. You may look at the same data and reach a completely different conclusion.  Much like these two gents used the same data and came to opposite conclusions.