MLM Basics: The eBay Test

"Jason McRiffle" brought up an interesting test in a BehindMLM comment for the "legitimacy" of an MLM, and it's more useful than it first seems. He dubbed it "the eBay test".

If an MLMer wants you to join "for the product", the way to check whether it's viable or not... is to take the product name and size, and go search on eBay for the same item.

If you can buy it cheaper on eBay including shipping than what you are supposed to sell it for, then it's clearly NOT profitable to join at all as you can't retail it at any profit.

Let's randomly pick one product from each of the top 3 MLM companies by revenue: Amway, Avon, and Herbalife.

Amway Nutrilite Double X Refill "retail price" is $88 on Amway's website

Same refill is easily found on eBay for $50-$60, and if you want to bid, even less

That's not a surprise, is it?

Scam Alert: Bitcoin as disguise for Ponzi scheme

EDITOR'S NOTE: I counted the difficulty wrong. It's FAR MORE HOPELESS than I ever imagined. See revision throughout the last half of the article.

In the past 6 or so months there has been a plethora of suspect Ponzi schemes that involves Bitcoin as its disguise. Some of them are basically pure HYIPs (BitClub Network, Bitcoin Zones), while others are existing schemes that decided to incorporate Bitcoin as part of its various schemes (GetEasy, Paymony) Here's description from one of them:

XXXXXXX costs $99 for your membership. 

You can then buy shares in their three mining pools for $500; $1,000; and $2,000 per share respectively. 

Every share you purchase will pay you daily payouts for 1,000 days.

This, gentleman, is an unregistered security, as defined by US law known as the Howey Test.

A security in the US is defined as:

1. investment of money due to
2. an expectation of profits arising from
3. a common enterprise
4. which depends solely on the efforts of a promoter or third party

You "buy shares", you expect "payouts", you buy into "pool" which is obviously a "common enterprise", and payout solely depends on some unknown "mining pool".

This is OBVIOUSLY an investment security, and it's ILLEGAL to offer in the US of A.

"Now wait a minute", I hear you ask... "Are you telling me Bitcoin mining is illegal?"

NO! You see, in a *typical* bitcoin mining operation, you contribute CPU POWER ONLY (think of it as labor or material), not actual money. For example, this is how you join the BitMinter pool:

1. Register
2.  start bitminter clientBitminter client: Hit the start button to start Bitminter client. You get bitcoins for the work it does. Works on Windows, Linux and Mac. Requires updated Java. Other clients: bfgminer, cgminer, etc. Connect to the pool at stratum+tcp://mint.bitminter.com:3333. As user name put your Bitminter user name, an underscore, then a worker name, e.g. DrHaribo_asic3. In case you have firewall issues, port 443 and 5050 (Stratum) are also available. There is no password check, any password is accepted.
3. Get a wallet to transfer your coins to. Make sure you secure your wallet.

Other actual MINING pools are the same: you join by contributing CPU / processing power, NOT actual money.

In fact, you can join one now, using your regular desktop PC. It won't do much compared to dedicated hardware that costs THOUSANDS of dollars, but you can do it for FREE (and your payout will be negligible).

Ah, but you say, but *maybe* they really are buying the hardware to do the mining with the money you gave them?

Then it'd be a stupid investment, and I'll explain to you why by crunching some numbers.

Scam Psychology: How Scammers Push Your Buttons through your personality disorders

The Age of Uncertainty
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As the MLM Skeptic, it is rather interesting to see many people who are defending their particular scheme from criticism suffer from personality disorders (not that I am a professional of any sort regarding psychology). They are often self-obsessed and arrogant as well as intolerant of ambiguity, and lack of empathy.

Many unscrupulous multi-level marketers and scammers play to these personality disorders by claiming they are VIRTUES, not disorders. These disorders are, instead, presented variably as confidence, conviction, certainty, and "they are not us".

People develop coping mechanisms when their self-image was diminished. One of the most common coping mechanism is retaliation: when they feel devalued, they devalue others as a response. Scams often play up this personality disorder by encouraging it with "they are not us; they don't think like us; they just don't understand us". It is then followed with epithets like "They have JOB -- just over broke", or "they will stay wage slaves while we achieve financial independence".

Any one who questioned the person's choice (the scam, in this case) will be devalued, even if they are best friends and family, and even spouse. That's why "intervention" when it comes to scams rarely succeed.

Another coping mechanism people develop is equating conviction with certainty. Conviction is a collection of your strong beliefs about the morality of your choice and/or behavior. If you don't really have much conviction, you'll often adopt certainty as if it is conviction. Thus you'll also develop certainty about other people (and what you believe to be THEIR conviction or lack thereof). This comes across as arrogance and intolerance. Scams play up this aspect by creating fanciful stories about the critics asking questions, such as "you're just jealous; you're just out looking for hits for your blog; you must have hated the owner; you're the 1% out to fleece us the 99%".  After Zeek Rewards ponzi scheme was shut down in 2012, some started floating fanciful stories about "SEC doesn't have a case because they privately admitted to our lawyers". Others even explained to newspapers that Security and Exchange Commission does not know what securities are.

However, what people don't understand is very often, certainty is an ILLUSION.

Scam Detector: What is "Cockroach Theory", and how does it apply to suspect schemes?

cockroach (Photo credit: TomSpinker)

Ever heard of the "cockroach theory"?

It's quite simple, actually. When you see one cockroach, there's probably a lot more hiding nearby.

When applied to investments and companies, it means when you see one problem, there's probably a lot more problems that you are not seeing. (And you should jump ship ASAP)

The theory is also applicable to potentially shady opportunities, actually. If you are smart enough to read the signs, and not ignore them.

Let's take one very obvious example: Zeek Rewards. They were shut down by the Feds in August 2012. But signs had been there for MONTHS that it was in trouble.

Zeekler, the auction, had been in operation since 2010 (as FSC auction and later Zeekler) without an auction license (required in North Carolina, their home state). They did not obtain an auction license until March 2012! But nobody checked. That may have been a roach but nobody saw it. Because everybody assumed it's all legal.

Did you know that Paul Burks, head of Zeek, was performing as "the singing magician" before he retired from performing and started MLMs instead? You know magic is just deception for entertainment, right? That may have been a roach but nobody saw it, because they've been distracted. 

In April 2012 Zeek Rewards suddenly banned a dozen or so European countries from participating, and gave several bogus reasons, one even blaming the US State Department Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) uttered by the head Zeek Paul Burks himself. However, this was all proven to be lies only weeks later. Turns out they were both hit with thousands of stolen credit cards and by Denial of Service attacks. And their system can't handle it. The lie was pierced by BehindMLM within two weeks. Is that a cockroach you see? Did you miss it?  

By June 2012 they apparently got a local TV station to report on their "success", and even got the reporter to state that the North Carolina's Attorney General office had deemed the business legal. (Wonder whose palm they had to grease to have that happen?)  AG's office was so shocked, they demanded the video be taken down and the text changed on the TV station's website. Oh my, another roach! Did you miss this one too? Or is that "I see no roach (negativity)?"

Scam Psychology: is Positivity Training perpetuating Mental Illness symptoms?

A recent Dilbert comic had this quote

"Certainty about the future is a sign of mental illness."  (NOTE: There's a second lesson here about "we shall (not) be vindicated".)

Why? Because only the self-delusional are absolutely certain about anything... including the future. And self-delusion is a mental illness.

Therefore, thinking only positive thoughts about yourself (well beyond what's needed for self-esteem) and your future is also self-delusion.

But wait, you say, are you saying that I can't give myself a compliment? A thumbs up to myself in the mirror?

No, I didn't say that. Going OVERBOARD with such compliments to the point of ignoring reality is dangerous, and so are anyone trying to dissuade you from reality.

But to explain that, we need to explain how the brain works when it comes to social interactions.