One of the hardest things to analyze in a MLM is "How Much Money Will I Make".
The stupid ones recite the slogan: "As much as you want!"
The weasel ones add a disclaimer, "As much as you want (don't blame us if you fail)"
The realistic ones don't feed you BS, "Your success is dependent on your ability to sell, your ability to form a sales team, your effort and willingness to dedicate yourself and a whole lot of luck."
But none of them will be able to quote you a number, except what *they* have personally earned, or what someone in their team earned. And that doesn't say whether they do this every pay period, or where did this money come from: "personal volume" (retail sales by oneself), or commission from "group volume" (i.e. team total sales volume)
Amway is one of the few companies that even calculates what average member earn via retail.
According to the Amway Bonus System PDF, the "retail profit" varies between 25-30%. Calculate backward from this, you can estimate that average retail revenue per active IBO per month is $732 (assume 25% retail profit). That's not much in terms of Amway's "BV" or business volume, in dollars.
Bonus (i.e. Commission in Amway speak), however, is based on PV, which is a separate value from BV, and the value varies from product to product, and from region to region and season to season to season. And the problem is this number depends on the number of downlines AND their BV / PV.
You can see that this makes the "average" income for a MLM being practically IMPOSSIBLE to decipher, as there are just too many variables, and that's why most compensation plans takes a dozen pages to explain, with a dozen different examples. And those with fancier examples like trees, balanced branches, loops/cycles, and so on? Even worse.
So how do you know you'll make money in a MLM?
But here's a question for you to really think about:
Are you sure the efforts you put in will result in a commensurate amount of compensation?
After all, think about it... most of your money comes from OTHER people's sales, for those that made it into the big times.
But how do you know those are really SALES (i.e. they sold stuff), vs. they just buy stuff every month?
You are their upline. You are making money off THEIR backs. Is that really SHARING success?
What does that make you? A leader... or an exploiter?