Thursday, July 10, 2014

Anti-Scam: Rough Guide to Spotting Shady Opportunities, Part 2 of 3

This guide is an adaptation of "A Rough Guide to Spotting Bad Science" by "Compound Interest", converted for spotting "shady opportunities". For length reasons, this is presented in 3 parts. This is part 2 of 3.

A Rough Guide To Spotting Shady Opportunities  (part 2 of 3)

Shady Opportunities are out there, waiting to take your money on promises of fabulous income... if you hand over your money first. There are twelve signs. Obviously a shady opportunity may not have all the signs, but the more signs you spot, the more shady the opportunity is.

5) Speculative Language

Speculations are not facts, so if the statement contains "weasel words" like "may", "could", "might", and so on, then it's likely to be speculation, rather than conclusion.

You can often spot this when a "lotions and potions" company presents some study that "sort of" proves their product works. But this can also apply to income claims, which is usually frowned upon.

For example, a certain MLM nutritional supplement company's entire product line is based on this speculation published in "Medical Hypotheses (2002)"
...Based on a review of the literature we propose the hypothesis that in situ mobilization of stem cells from the bone marrow and their migration to various tissues is a normal physiological process of regeneration and repair and that therapeutic benefits can be generated with less invasive regimens than the removal and re-injection of stem cells, through the stimulation of normal stem cell migration. We further propose that effort should be made to identify natural compounds characterized by their ability to augment this normal process of mobilization and re-colonization of bone marrow stem cells for the potential treatment of various degenerative diseases. 
If you can't read medical jargon, what it says is "Stem cells are cool. We think stem cells gets into the blood and travel around the body to where its needed to help healing. Maybe we can find a natural something that'll make the body produce more stem cells."

That's right, this is a HYPOTHESIS. There is no proof that having more "loose" stem cells in your body would improve your health (remember, HYPOTHESIS), much less any compound that can do so.

Doesn't stop this MLM company from making products with such claims, of course. In fact, some of the principals in this company where previously sued (under a different company name) in Texas and lost a false advertising suit... also involving stem cells. That company used blue-green algae, some of which are POISONOUS (see "microcystins")  And it seems this particular company is still using similar formulas.

The company may sound confident in stating such things on their advertising materials. Look beyond the marketing material and look at the original research their products are based on. You may be surprised.

Conversely, if a company "guarantees" something, look for caveats and fine print. 

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Anti-Scam: Rough Guide to Spotting Shady Opportunities, Part 1 of 3.

This guide is an adaptation of "A Rough Guide to Spotting Bad Science" by "Compound Interest", converted for spotting "shady opportunities". For length reasons, this is presented in 3 parts. This is part 1 of 3.

A Rough Guide To Spotting Shady Opportunities  (part 1 of 3)

Shady Opportunities are out there, waiting to take your money on promises of fabulous income... if you hand over your money first. There are twelve signs. Obviously a shady opportunity may not have all the signs, but the more signs you spot, the more shady the opportunity is.

1) Sensationalized Headlines


Headlines are often click bait or link bait, such as "everyone makes money" or "How to turn $289 into $1040 guaranteed"


As Carl Sagan said, "extraordinary claim requires extraordinary evidence". Don't believe the headlines, even if they are made/repeated by people you trust. Remember, they could have been duped. If they don't bother asking for extraordinary evidence, then you cannot trust their judgement on this specific matter.

2) Misinterpreted results

Nothing beats DIRECT access to the data. If you listen to someone's pitch, you are listening to his or her version of what s/he is telling you, which may be just a sales pitch with certain amount of untruth... truth as s/he know it, or the actual truth. You don't know which one it is, or even how much of each.

Without the actual data, any interpretation is just that... an interpretation. You may look at the same data and reach a completely different conclusion.  Much like these two gents used the same data and came to opposite conclusions.