DADA Loop: Data / Analysis / Decision / Action and the MLM mind

How do you make decisions?  It's usually a 4 step process:

1. Gather Data

2. Analyze Data

3. Decide on Action

4. Perform the action

This is pretty obvious to most people. Military call it the OODA loop, civilians called it DADA loop (data, analysis, decision, action), but it's the same thing.

So how can this loop go wrong?  EVERY one of the four steps can go wrong.

• One can gather the WRONG data (victim of deception or bad data gathering)
• One can fail to analyze data objectively (by ignoring good data)
• One can fail to decide on any action (stalled loop)
• One can fail to perform the action correctly.

Let's see how MLMer reacts to these steps.

Scam Tactic: Love Bombing

Sun Myung Moon
 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This is the start of a new subtopic called "Scam Tactics" where I attempt to document certain approaches used by unscrupulous people on unsuspecting victims.

Today's topic: Love Bombing

The term "love bombing" originated in the 1970's from the "Unification Church" lead by Sun Myung Moon. If you don't recall the name, you may have heard of the Moonies cult. In a speech in July 23, 1978, Moon gave a speech, which is transcribed and translated below:

Unification Church members are smiling all of the time, even at four in the morning. The man who is full of love must live that way. When you go out witnessing you can caress the wall and say that it can expect you to witness well and be smiling when you return. What face could better represent love than a smiling face? This is why we talk about love bomb; Moonies have that kind of happy problem.

It sounds simple, but the way it works is a bit more insidious. As explained by professor Margaret Singer, a cult expert:

As soon as any interest is shown by the recruits, they may be love bombed by the recruiter or other cult members. This process of feigning friendship and interest in the recruit was originally associated with one of the early youth cults, but soon it was taken up by a number of groups as part of their program for luring people in. Love bombing is a coordinated effort, usually under the direction of leadership, that involves long-term members' flooding recruits and newer members with flattery, verbal seduction, affectionate but usually nonsexual touching, and lots of attention to their every remark. Love bombing - or the offer of instant companionship - is a deceptive ploy accounting for many successful recruitment drives.

Basically, the members fluff up your self-esteem by paying very close attention to your every action and appearance, and only give you positive feedback.

MLM Mythbusting: Is MLM really a growth industry? (The Numbers May Surprise You)

When you listen to MLMers / Network Marketers, you're often told that MLM is the big thing, it's "experiencing record growth", it's "amassing fortunes for millions of people each year", it's "#1 millionaire producing industry", big companies are going MLM, and so on and so forth. They'll dazzle you with numbers such as

• Every week 150000 people join network marketing around the world (but how many quit?)
• Worldwide sales of MLM is estimated to be 90 billion (still less than 1% of world economy)
• DSA estimates 200 million new distributors in next 10 years (again, how many quit?)

Is MLM actually growing that much, when compared to other industries? Let's look a little closer. 

Is MLM the "next big thing"?

Claims have been made since the 1990's that MLM is the next big thing.  Back in 1990, Richard Poe wrote in Success magazine that network marketing is "the most powerful way to reach consumers in the 90s". He also wrote a few books, specifically, Wave 4.  This quote was reproduced ad infinitum by various MLMers trying to legitimize their own little niche. You can see this example where the author changed it to "21st century economy".

Basically, they've been saying it for THREE DECADES (going into FOURTH) and it STILL haven't come true. 

Those claims had not come true. Internet soon surpassed network marketing as the way to reach consumers, with online shopping, and ready access to review sites, peer reviews, and more. E-Commerce is a 289 BILLION dollar industry in 2012. For comparison, direct sales and network marketing is a 31.6 Billion industry in 2012, as per DSA. (see below)

One more point of comparison... Total US retail for 2012 is $4.9 TRILLION.  That makes direct sales 0.64% of stuff sold. It's a niche market, and it's not growing much, and hadn't done so for decades. 

Is MLM "experiencing record growth"? 

A lot of places repeat big words like "record growth"... 

The problem is... relative to what? DSA itself reports that sales has been down since 2006 and only just recovered in 2013 or 2014 (not counting inflation). See for yourself (all graphs courtesy of DSA.org):

1991 to 2000

2000 to 2008

2008 to 2012 (latest data from DSA)

So "record growth"... In relation to what, exactly?  It's now 2014 and they probably did break their old 2006 record... but that just means they are not as recession proof as they claimed to be... 

Also, is 31 billion a lot? Again, in relation to what?  Franchising is a 740 billion industry as of 2011, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers analysis. And franchising started at about the same time as network marketing.  In fact, franchising may have success rate of up to 95% (the stats are old, per 1991, and no new data had been compiled since)

"Record growth" statement is meaningless. 

Due Diligence: Does the Business Model Make Sense To You? Are you sure?

As the MLM Skeptic, one comes across all sorts of alleged businesses, and many of them makes sense as a business, but not so much as an affiliate/distributor. Some makes sense as an affiliate, but makes no sense as a business. Obviously, a real business have to make sense to both the business itself and to the affiliates/distributors. 

In a typical retail business, the business model is very simple: buy low, sell high, sell much. There is no separate model for the participants, as participant is the owner of the business. 

In a direct sale business, we have to examine both layers, and they should coincide. Business buy the inventory at low prices, then sends out the direct sales people to sell them at higher prices. The business model for the participants, the direct sales force, are the same: buy low, sell high, sell much. 

However, with newer technologies a variety of schemes have appeared to entice participants to put in money or sign up in order to reap benefits...  Yet its business model makes no sense upon closer examination. 

Remember, for a business to succeed, both its own business model and the business model of its participants must both be sensible AND profitable. 

Today, we shall examine one business whose business model makes no f***ing sense upon closer examination. 

Or to put it another way: If it's so profitable why are they paying you?

Scam Alert: Bitcoin as disguise for Ponzi scheme

EDITOR'S NOTE: I counted the difficulty wrong. It's FAR MORE HOPELESS than I ever imagined. See revision throughout the last half of the article.

In the past 6 or so months there has been a plethora of suspect Ponzi schemes that involves Bitcoin as its disguise. Some of them are basically pure HYIPs (BitClub Network, Bitcoin Zones), while others are existing schemes that decided to incorporate Bitcoin as part of its various schemes (GetEasy, Paymony) Here's description from one of them:

XXXXXXX costs $99 for your membership. 

You can then buy shares in their three mining pools for $500; $1,000; and $2,000 per share respectively. 

Every share you purchase will pay you daily payouts for 1,000 days.

This, gentleman, is an unregistered security, as defined by US law known as the Howey Test.

A security in the US is defined as:

1. investment of money due to
2. an expectation of profits arising from
3. a common enterprise
4. which depends solely on the efforts of a promoter or third party

You "buy shares", you expect "payouts", you buy into "pool" which is obviously a "common enterprise", and payout solely depends on some unknown "mining pool".

This is OBVIOUSLY an investment security, and it's ILLEGAL to offer in the US of A.

"Now wait a minute", I hear you ask... "Are you telling me Bitcoin mining is illegal?"

NO! You see, in a *typical* bitcoin mining operation, you contribute CPU POWER ONLY (think of it as labor or material), not actual money. For example, this is how you join the BitMinter pool:

1. Register
2.  start bitminter clientBitminter client: Hit the start button to start Bitminter client. You get bitcoins for the work it does. Works on Windows, Linux and Mac. Requires updated Java. Other clients: bfgminer, cgminer, etc. Connect to the pool at stratum+tcp://mint.bitminter.com:3333. As user name put your Bitminter user name, an underscore, then a worker name, e.g. DrHaribo_asic3. In case you have firewall issues, port 443 and 5050 (Stratum) are also available. There is no password check, any password is accepted.
3. Get a wallet to transfer your coins to. Make sure you secure your wallet.

Other actual MINING pools are the same: you join by contributing CPU / processing power, NOT actual money.

In fact, you can join one now, using your regular desktop PC. It won't do much compared to dedicated hardware that costs THOUSANDS of dollars, but you can do it for FREE (and your payout will be negligible).

Ah, but you say, but *maybe* they really are buying the hardware to do the mining with the money you gave them?

Then it'd be a stupid investment, and I'll explain to you why by crunching some numbers.

Scam Psychology: How Scammers Push Your Buttons through your personality disorders

The Age of Uncertainty
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As the MLM Skeptic, it is rather interesting to see many people who are defending their particular scheme from criticism suffer from personality disorders (not that I am a professional of any sort regarding psychology). They are often self-obsessed and arrogant as well as intolerant of ambiguity, and lack of empathy.

Many unscrupulous multi-level marketers and scammers play to these personality disorders by claiming they are VIRTUES, not disorders. These disorders are, instead, presented variably as confidence, conviction, certainty, and "they are not us".

People develop coping mechanisms when their self-image was diminished. One of the most common coping mechanism is retaliation: when they feel devalued, they devalue others as a response. Scams often play up this personality disorder by encouraging it with "they are not us; they don't think like us; they just don't understand us". It is then followed with epithets like "They have JOB -- just over broke", or "they will stay wage slaves while we achieve financial independence".

Any one who questioned the person's choice (the scam, in this case) will be devalued, even if they are best friends and family, and even spouse. That's why "intervention" when it comes to scams rarely succeed.

Another coping mechanism people develop is equating conviction with certainty. Conviction is a collection of your strong beliefs about the morality of your choice and/or behavior. If you don't really have much conviction, you'll often adopt certainty as if it is conviction. Thus you'll also develop certainty about other people (and what you believe to be THEIR conviction or lack thereof). This comes across as arrogance and intolerance. Scams play up this aspect by creating fanciful stories about the critics asking questions, such as "you're just jealous; you're just out looking for hits for your blog; you must have hated the owner; you're the 1% out to fleece us the 99%".  After Zeek Rewards ponzi scheme was shut down in 2012, some started floating fanciful stories about "SEC doesn't have a case because they privately admitted to our lawyers". Others even explained to newspapers that Security and Exchange Commission does not know what securities are.

However, what people don't understand is very often, certainty is an ILLUSION.

Scam Detector: What is "Cockroach Theory", and how does it apply to suspect schemes?

cockroach (Photo credit: TomSpinker)

Ever heard of the "cockroach theory"?

It's quite simple, actually. When you see one cockroach, there's probably a lot more hiding nearby.

When applied to investments and companies, it means when you see one problem, there's probably a lot more problems that you are not seeing. (And you should jump ship ASAP)

The theory is also applicable to potentially shady opportunities, actually. If you are smart enough to read the signs, and not ignore them.

Let's take one very obvious example: Zeek Rewards. They were shut down by the Feds in August 2012. But signs had been there for MONTHS that it was in trouble.

Zeekler, the auction, had been in operation since 2010 (as FSC auction and later Zeekler) without an auction license (required in North Carolina, their home state). They did not obtain an auction license until March 2012! But nobody checked. That may have been a roach but nobody saw it. Because everybody assumed it's all legal.

Did you know that Paul Burks, head of Zeek, was performing as "the singing magician" before he retired from performing and started MLMs instead? You know magic is just deception for entertainment, right? That may have been a roach but nobody saw it, because they've been distracted. 

In April 2012 Zeek Rewards suddenly banned a dozen or so European countries from participating, and gave several bogus reasons, one even blaming the US State Department Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) uttered by the head Zeek Paul Burks himself. However, this was all proven to be lies only weeks later. Turns out they were both hit with thousands of stolen credit cards and by Denial of Service attacks. And their system can't handle it. The lie was pierced by BehindMLM within two weeks. Is that a cockroach you see? Did you miss it?  

By June 2012 they apparently got a local TV station to report on their "success", and even got the reporter to state that the North Carolina's Attorney General office had deemed the business legal. (Wonder whose palm they had to grease to have that happen?)  AG's office was so shocked, they demanded the video be taken down and the text changed on the TV station's website. Oh my, another roach! Did you miss this one too? Or is that "I see no roach (negativity)?"