Ponzi Analysis: Suspected Australian and Canadian Ponzi Schemes show all the classic signs long before collapse

In 2017, there were lots of Ponzi schemes, and two of them caught my attention. One was the Pilbarra Ponzi scheme in Australia, and the other was Istuary Innovation Labs Ponzi in Canada. Both of them show classic Ponzi signs long before their collapse.

To recap, the alleged Pilbarra Ponzi was a real estate investment project on the island of Newman near Western Australia, and Port Hedland, also Western Australia. Over $120 million where raised from 1800 investors who were promised between 10 and 36% per year return, into what they thought where property-backed investment. Turns out, the largest property was a piece of undeveloped land on the island of population 7000. The group of companies went bankrupt in 2016, and the Australia agency ASIC charged the operator Veronica Macpherson of operating a Ponzi scheme, with the later joiner's money went toward paying the early participant's interests.

As for Istuary Innovation Labs Ponzi, it started in 2013 as "technology incubation platform" to link tech startups in Canada with customers in China. What was interesting was it promised to return FIVE TIMES what was put into the company in two years, alleged the victims suing the company. Several employees and contractors claimed they had not been paid for work or wages. One investor outright called Istuary a Ponzi scheme.

Let's ignore for now whether they are really Ponzi schemes or not. But what are the signs of danger both exhibited long before they started actually showing problems?

Being Skeptical: Can you make $$$ mining bitcoins? (2017 edition)

With Bitcoin around 8000, people are once again excited about mining Bitcoins. But does it make sense for YOU to order a mining rig and start mining yourself?

Frankly, no, unless you live in an area with extremely cheap electricity.

You can play with the profitability calculator.  http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

Remember to plug in the cost of the rig (assume Antminer S9 cost $2000, 1600W, produces 14 TH/s), and cost of your local electricity (assume $0.13/W), AND the current BTC/USD conversion (use $8000)

Even at the current prices of $8000 USD/BTC, you won't break even for 5 MONTHS (breakeven is calculated for 140-160 days depending on electricity costs). The ONLY way this can be profitable is you setup where electricity is cheap, like in India and China, where electricity is 1/3 less than in the US.

Scam Hilarity: Suspect ponzi claims to be mining bitcoin w/ perpetual motion engine

Woo, short for woo-woo, is a term used to describe something that is completely implausible, yet explained with pseudo-scientific and potentially-plausible jargon that can fool innocent sheeple. You can encounter woo in all sorts of places, and most of the time they do no harm. However, when they show up in medicine and finance, they can do quite a bit of harm indeed. And today, we'll discuss the a new wrinkle... physical woo on top of financial woo.

But let me start from the beginning.

HYIP, or "high yield investment program" is a form of ponzi scheme that promised impossibly high yields. Claimed returns like 1% per day is not uncommon.

Some of them are pretty transparent in being a scheme, while others may adopt weasel language like "crowdfunding" or "charity". Yet others turn to woo explanations for their ability to pay such high yields that makes absolutely no sense when examined in detail. Frankly, it failed to pass the smell test... If they have techniques that can reliably generate such income, just put down a mortgage or borrow X dollars from credit card or bank, and they'll make it back in no time. Right? Yet there have been, for decades, schemes that attempt to explain their ability to generate such returns, with bogus excuses such as "bridge loans" [DOJ], "P2P lending" [CNBC], "forex" [DOJ], "arbitrage" [wikipedia], "penny auctions" [CBSnews], "prime bank" [SEC] and so on.

The latest buzzword is cryptocurrency, and it's no wonder ponzi schemes have latched onto it as the latest craze, by incorporating something people who have heard of, but do not understand, as their woo. Some launch their own cryptocurrency (that nobody would ever use), yet others latch onto the idea of cryptomining, the idea that you can "mine" bitcoin and other currencies.

While cryptomining is real, it is hard to make money in such because the hardware to mine and the electricity to run them, not to mention cooling, are expensive as well. It may be possible to run such in China and Eastern Europe, where electricity is cheap (by government mandate) and hardware and labor are cheap, esp. if one exploit scale by running massive crypto-mine.

So the latest crypto-woo is launched by a company called USI-Tech, which used to be Forex HYIP (see above), but they've since switched to Cryptomining as their new woo. Recently in London, they've shown their latest "innovation"... they can create "virtually FREE energy" to run their cryptomining machines.

USI-Tech claims they can create "virtually free energy",
but they only want to run cryptomining rigs with it

Perpetual motion machine doesn't exist, as it violates law of thermodynamics. Yet there are plenty of kooks who claim they made one, or claim the knowledge was suppressed by the evil government or energy consortiums or something. Though you had to admit, using one to power cryptomining is rather cute.

But what does this thing look like?

Scam Psychology: Theory on Stupidity, Scam, ponzi, and pyramid schemes

Ever heard of Professor Cipolla's theory on stupidity? Neither have I until recently, but it explains quite clearly how the world works, esp. scams.

According to professor Cipolla, you can measure a person by 2 axis: benefit derived from their own actions... and benefit to others because of their own actions

It roughly goes like this:

Cipolla's theory on stupidity, summarized

If you are a victim in Ponzi scheme under receivership, you MUST file a claim BEFORE the deadline!

A lot of ponzi schemes were caught by authorities and assets seized so the victims can be repaid.

• ZeekRewards Receivership has sent out hundreds of thousands of checks for hundreds of millions of dollars. All victims with allowable claims have received funds for at least 75% of their losses. 

This was a huge ponzi involving almost a billion dollars and a million victims. And this was one of the most successful repayments by the receivership.

But notice the term:  All victims with allowable claims

That means victims who filed all the proper paperwork proving the amount of their loss and other requirements.

Victims who did NOT file the paperwork will probably NOT get anything.  And one case that was adjudicated September 2017 illustrated this clearly.

Less than 1/4 of all pyramid scheme victims ever file a complaint, says FTC survey

Some recent surfing brought me to an interesting bit of information:

...consumers who had purchased a [membership in] pyramid scheme were the least likely to complain – less than one-quarter indicated that they had complained. -- FTC fraud survey (2004)

This is a fascinating statistic. The FTC definition of pyramid scheme specifically means "pyramid marketing schemes", as in MLMs that went over to the dark side.

Here it is important to note that FTC questions were actually 1) Did you purchase an opportunity to operate (your) own business  2) Were you lead to believe most of the money earned from this business would be from recruiting others to join the business, rather than sale of products and 3) Were you deceived by the offer of business opportunity with false income claims or false offers of assistance?  (Not exact wording, but you can find the questions in the linked PDF)

It is worth noting that in MLM...

A) Almost all MLM claim you are "owning your own business", follow by a derisive attitude toward a job ("just over broke" is often uttered).

B) You almost always get some lecture that you are NOT in a pyramid scheme, yet you are told to "build your team", which is just euphemism for recruiting.

C) Many questionable "leaders" of MLMs will resort to false income claims and false offers of assistance to get you to join, then blame you for your failure. "You must be doing it wrong", they'll point fingers, "because it worked for me."

But there is a hidden statistic that is not obvious until you read the fine print...

... In conducting this test it was necessary to drop the government jobs and business opportunities categories because there are too few consumers who experienced these types of frauds to meet the necessary statistical properties to conduct a Chi-square test.

The "government jobs" fraud is victim paid for false promises of government jobs. And business opportunities... needs no introduction.

But think about it. If there are so few reported incidents for them to even calculate the odds of underreporting...

Either there are so few instances of fraud in business opportunities...

Or there are so many instances of underreporting in business opportunities that it's like an iceberg...

Let's consider a real ponzi case... Zeek Rewards.

Scam Tactic: Moving the Goalpost (aka Special Pleading)

Moving the goalpost is very simple to explain with a single image:

Moving the goalpost, courtesy of zapiro @ zapiro.com

If someone moves the goal post, you'll never to be able to score a goal.

So what does that have to do with scams? Two ways:

1) when scammers promised one thing, then moved the goalpost with some excuses, or

2) when scam deniers tried to deny the evidence of the scam by moving the goalpost.

Scammer Moving the Goalpost

Scam companies that promise an IPO (initial public offering) while offering stocks or options to affiliates are known to move the goalpost because the IPO either will never take place, or takes place but were completely useless.  One such example was Wantong Miracle 萬通奇跡 scam in China, where a known scammer who launched multiple scams in China AND in the US seem to have finally been arrested by Chinese authorities.

Some suspect that recent attempts by Visalus to roll back the promised "founders equity incentive plan" may also be "moving the goalpost" after one side had already satisfied the requirements, only to be met with even MORE requirements from the other side or lose the supposed equity incentive they have gained, that a judge had to issue a restraining order.

OneCoin, which has been accused by multiple regulatory bodies on multiple continents of being a scam or a suspect scam, has repeated changed or delayed its IPO or ICO (depending on when you asked).  In January and February 2017, OneCoin announced they will go IPO in "early 2018", then the date was moved to July 2018 according to a Chinese website on OneCoin. However, in September 2017, the news completely changed. Instead of IPO, affiliates of OneCoin claimed that OneCoin will conduct an ICO (initial coin offering) instead, and it will not be until October 2018. That's at least THREE delays in less than a year, and it's ALWAYS a year away.

"Always delay the day of reckoning" is a standard bull****er tactic.

Let's go onto our next topic, scam denier moving the goalpost

Even "Hedge Fund of the Year" Got Tricked By Ticket Ponzi Scheme

A sports talk show radio host claims he has access to an almost unlimited amount of discounted major sports tickets, and he needed a lot of money to buy them in order to share the profits. Do you believe him?

A "hedge fund of the year" with 18 billion assets did, and it appears they have lost $4.3 million they put into two companies controlled by this talk show radio host.

You may think who'd believe this sort of stuff, or how can they be this stupid, but really, think about it...

Hedge funds, esp. fund of the year are NOT stupid.

However, there's no doubt that this is a ponzi scheme... When the Feds arrested the radio talk show host and uncovered a trove of communications between him and his co-conspirators, as well as evidence of his millions in gambling debt.  Robbing Peter to pay Paul is the very definition of Ponzi scheme. This radio talk show host, who co-hosts with a VERY famous former NFL celebrity, had been accused with running this scheme.

Yet you can see this sort of argument proliferate in the "make money fast" market, and promoters use the language of "this can't possibly be a scam because it associated with _____", and this guy has it in spades. A famous hedge fund gave him millions of dollars. He co-hosts a show with a celebrity. He can't possibly be a scammer, right?

WRONG!

Lesson to take away: when someone tries to sell you something on reputation only, think VERY VERY HARD on it. The risk is probably much higher than you think.

Scam Psychology: Crank Magnetism and Sheeple Magnetism

"Crank magnetism" is a phenomenon describing that a crank for one idea often is also a crank of one or more unrelated but equally unorthodox and often irrational ideas.  The term was coined in 2007 by Mark Hoofnagle to describe a particular Holocaust denier who also latched onto some crazy DNA theory of disease from someone else.

When I encounter this term, I immediately thought of how "sheeple", i.e. those victims ready to be fleeced, tend to fall for one scheme after another, not necessarily at the same time, but they are vulnerable to cross recruitment, i.e. "here's something else that'd be good for you". To my surprise, there is no such term.  While sheeple is defined, and there are related terms such as reload scam, the phenomenon that a sheeple can believe in multiple unrelated scams is not a term.

So let me coin the term now: sheeple magnetism... phenomenon describing a sheeple, who fell for one scam, is often vulnerable to other scams.

Ponzi scheme victims are the most often found examples of sheeple magnetism, esp. if they were among the "net winners", i.e the minority who got more out of the scheme than they put in (so the rest are net losers).  They were often given "contrafreeloading" tasks to make them believe they "earned" their money. Such "victims" will go on to a different scheme that they recognize to be of a similar structure: way too easy work, way too much money, and believe they found their path to riches.

Two Ponzi Scammers Got Their Prison Sentences Handed Down...

Two ponzi scammers got their prison sentences handed down recently in early 2017.

Paul Burks, who was the head of the $939 million Zeek Rewards ponzi scheme with over 1 million victims around the world, got 14 years in a Federal prison, in addition to fines of $244 million in restitution (which he can't pay as he already gave up all his possessions) and 3 years probation. Given that Burks is already 70 years old and is believed to be not in the best of health, he may spend his final days in prison.

Two other top heads of the scheme, Daniel Olivarez (computer guru) and Dawn Wright-Olivares (VP of Operations and spokesperson) have been sentenced previously to lesser terms for their contributory roles in the scam that was shut down in 2012 by SEC and Secret Service. It was believed they were fined and have to give up their residence. There was no word on what happened to a restaurant Dawn allegedly operated, or what happened to her job at a different MLM company called iWowwe.

MLM Skeptic had been tracking Zeek Rewards for over a year before it was shut down and published several articles explaining how Zeek Rewards cannot be legitimate. Indeed, in the final days of their scam they tried to gag me with a "takedown request" to my content host by claiming MLMSkeptic had violated their trademark when it was quickly realized that the alleged trademarks was not even owned by them! Must be really desperate over there in their final days, as only a few weeks later when SEC and Secret Service stepped in.

In other news, co-leader of a smaller ponzi known as "The Achieve Community", Kristine Johnson, was sentenced to 21 months in Federal Prison. TAC, which is peanuts compared to Zeek, was shutdown in 2015 by SEC. It was a pretty simple Ponzi scheme that didn't bother to polish itself by hiring celebrity lawyers and experts and pretending to be legitimate. They mainly stuck to Facebook and such, by claiming "triple algorithm" that can multiply money... What utter nonsense.

MLM Skeptic had not been tracking TAC but it was identified early on by Oz of BehindMLM as a simple cycler ponzi scheme.

What do these two scams have in common? It's actually quite simple..

GREED.

One unexpected victim of Ponzi schemes: College Sports

Did you ever consider where are the ponzi scheme victims?  I mean, you usually think that the ponzi scheme victims are rich folks like Madoff victims, right?

You'd be very wrong.

ZeekRewards had an estimated 2.2 million victims all over the world.

TelexFree had almost TWO MILLION victims in US and Brazil

But here's a victim you'd never expect... College football.

You're probably exclaiming, "WTF? What does Ponzi scheme have anything to do with college football?"

Bad Argument: Citing Celebrity Endorsement as Evidence despite Celebrities said Some of the Craziest Things

It is a fact that celebrities have said some of the kookiest stuff in public including

• Earth is flat (claimed by a rapper)
• Cancer is caused by "negative attitude" (claimed by a TV show host)
• Homeopathy and anti-vaccination (too many to count)

There are even dedicated lists of celebrities idiotic comments. Yet celebrity endorsement remains one of the top forms of advertising. Indeed, MLM has repeatedly used celebrity endorsements. Back when Vemma was a thing, Vemma followers have repeated cited association with Dr. Oz, mainly because B K Boreyko, Vemma's founder, had once said it is Dr. Oz's "favorite fatigue fighter." The real truth is Dr. Oz never endorsed Vemma... The linkback is a courtesy because Boreyko is on the board of one of Dr. Oz's charities.  In other MLMs, Both Donald Trump and Ben Carson (candidates for 2016 Presidential Campaign) have had dealings with MLM (ACN and Mannatech respectively).

SIDENOTE: Trump was quoted by Wall Street Journal, "I (Trump) know nothing about the company (ACN) other than the people who run the company, I’m not familiar with what they (ACN) do or how they go about doing it, and I make that clear in my speeches." A ringing endorsement indeed, despite Trump pocketing millions in speaking fees from ACN events. 

MLM itself often tout their "sales leaders" as minor celebrities, complete with big pageantry of award ceremonies and such.  As an example, Mary Kay is well known for its huge spectacles which are deceptively called "seminars" where new sales rep who reach some minimum goal are showered with praise from the crowd. It is very intoxicating and "inspiring".

Mary Kay convention, all the "ruby" folks getting recognized (date unknown)

But what makes celebrities seem to goof up more often? This can't really be merely explained by the spotlight effect, i.e. anything celebrity said is repeated ad infinitum, while a regular person's kook can often be overlooked. It is a factor, but it can't be all that there is.

Other factors at work includes:

• Luck blindness / Survivorship Bias
• Dunning-Kruger effect
• Self-Centered bias
• Positive reinforcement / confirmation bias / Echo chamber effect

Scam Tactics: Whip Up Fear, Provide "Solution", Take Your Money under false pretense

A lot of so-called "entrepreneurs" (read: MLM noobs) are so fond of repeating marketing speech they don't ever stop and wonder WHY are they doing what they're doing, and whether it makes any sense. One of which is the "mystery tease", where there's practically NO public info about the company, or the promoter is trying to keep things VERY VERY vague. You pretty much have to join, get the info, then consider canceling in order to get ANY information on the company.

When questioned why does the company operate this way, the rep, either stammer "so don't join" or retorts with insults such as "you're obviously not an entrepreneur".  The implication for both is "if you want to know about the company before you join, you're obviously NOT ready to join."

Isn't that just faith, i.e. "I am willing to join without knowing what I am joining"?  Does that even make sense? 

But this just reminded me of the infamous diamond scams during the late 1970's in the US. 

The scam is simple... The sellers claim to be sourcing diamonds and are offering them as investment instruments to folks who are afraid of the stock market fluctuations. The concept is simple: "everybody loves diamonds", "it only appreciates because supply is strictly controlled by a monopoly", "all diamonds are sealed with certificate guaranteeing their quality", and so on. And all of these statements are even... true. 

Sufficiently convinced, the buyer sent off a check for thousands, and in a week or so, he gets diamonds... sealed in plastic with the certificate guaranteeing their quality... Except for the caveat: the quality is only guaranteed if the plastic is NOT broken. I.e. any attempt to have it appraised means it's no longer guaranteed. And many customers did break the seal only to find the diamonds are inferior or even worthless quality. It was bad enough that New York's Attorney General has to establish a "Diamond Task Force" just to process the hundreds of complaints of fraud.

This is related to the modern "shrink-wrap contract", i.e. "if you break the seal, you accept the licensing terms", usually for software. And it's in a legal gray area. 

But these diamond hawksters also book hotel or resort ballrooms and hold "diamond investment seminars" where they prey upon fear of the audience ("at this inflation, your stocks and bonds are not keeping up"), and esp. seniors ("if you don't have some easily liquidated assets like diamonds, your kids can seize your cash assets and ship you off to a nursing home")

Doesn't that just reminds you of the modern equivalent? 

Scam Psychology: The "Hard Work" Narrative vs. the Luck Factor

The words "hard work" often appears in the MLM supporter's arguments or narrative trying to discredit their "opponents". Any one who failed can be explained away as "they didn't work hard enough".

The problem is technology has shrunk the required competence in skills that makes a difference. It has "leveled the playing field", so luck now plays a much larger factor than any one realizes.

This is total anathema to network marketing / MLM, whichever name they choose to go by. Indeed, luck and success are almost opposites in the MLM mindset. Those who are successful and "self-made" never want to talk about luck, or even want to HEAR about luck.  This is a cognitive bias known as luck blindness. And MLM feeds into the self-made narrative directly. Most MLM pitches involves "entrepreneurial spirit" "be your own boss" "get away from the J.O.B. (just over broke)" and so on. These people are taught that any success they had is due to their "hard work" and the brilliance of the system (despite the same system, in another breath, claimed "anyone can do it")

This sort of mentality leads to some truly amazing (in a slow train wreck sort of way) claims. One of such claim is how some net winners in the ZeekRewards ponzi scheme are claiming they provided "value" to the business, and thus they are entitled to their ill-gotten gains and thus not have to hand them back to the receiver to be redistributed to the victims.

Let's forget for a moment that ZeekRewards ponzi scheme head Paul Burks was just judged guilty on all four counts in July 2016. How did these ZeekRewards Ponzi net winners claim they are working hard and thus entitled to be compensated, according to their brief, worth $50K to 80K a year? They are pasting 10 short text ads per day on anywhere they can get away with it (i.e. "spamming"). For the record, while they are required to copy the URL where they posted the ads back to ZeekRewards for "verification", no such verification was ever done. In other words, they don't even have to be done. Their work were worthless. It can be done in minutes. For this simple work, they they claim such to be worth 50-80K a year...

Right, and pigs can fly.

Cognitive Bias: Sunk Cost Fallacy

Answer this following question to yourself, truthfully please. Remember, it's for you and you alone. Only you would know the answer.

Q: Do you make rational decisions based on the best-estimate future value of objects, investments, and experience? 

Your answer to yourself is probably going to be: Yes, of course.

You are wrong. In reality, your decisions are based on your EMOTIONAL investment you already made and accumulated, and the more you invest, the less likely you can let it go. 

This is a cognitive bias known as "sunk cost fallacy".  In short, you are basing your decision on what has been invested, rather than what it's worth NOW (or in the future).

And it's very simple to make you feel you've invested time and effort... by making you do trivial tasks that amounts of zero importance. Zookeepers (and pet owners) know this principle well... it's called "contra-freeloading".

Contrafreeloading is a term coined in 1963 by animal psychologist Glen Jensen, who created an experiment where 200 albino rats were given a choice: unlimited food pellets in little bowl, or a mechanism where they have to learn to press a lever to release a food pellet. Logically, rats should simply gorge on the effortless food and never touch the lever. However, the opposite happened... rats actually prefer the food source where they had to press a lever, by a large margin. This was since repeated in gerbils, mice, birds, fish, monkeys, chimps... and more. (The only exception is the domestic cat). In short, animals prefer doing a little work (but not too much) for their food, rather than just take a handout.

A great example of contra-freeloading in a scam is ZeekRewards ponzi scheme (as accused by SEC and USSS), an $850 million scheme will soon go to trial. In ZeekRewards, one supposedly buy bids in the Zeekler penny auction, give away the bids to random strangers as promotion, and gets rewarded with certain amount of daily profit based on the bids purchased for the next 90 days. One also needs to post ads to random places on the Internet, and then post the URL on the ZeekRewards website as "verification" to be rewarded. In reality the vast majority of the bids were never used (i.e. the participants simply put money into the system) and expect daily "profit share" of up to 1.8% of the money they put in. The daily posting of ads were never tracked and verified, and indeed some people started a blog just to post ads... that nobody will ever read or see. It's rather obvious, in hindsight, that the "posting the ad" must be contrafreeloading... to make the participant feel they "worked" for and "earned" their share of "profit" amounting to as high as 1.8% DAILY, when the trivial task can literally be done in a few minutes, and be outsourced to some kids for pennies a day.

Yet when all these facts were pointed out to the ZeekRewards affiliates, their answers often are "you work for a competitor", "you work for the 1% to oppress us", "why don't you want us to succeed", and so on. After Zeek was shut down, several members even outright claimed "there were no victims until the government came along."

Curt Miller, on FB, soon after Zeek was closed by USSS and SEC, claiming that
"there were no victims (in ZeekRewards) until the government came along". 

They are so emotionally (and financially) invested into ZeekRewards, they can longer think rationally and see reason, even when there is NO REASON to continue to behave irrationally.

It is illogical to continue to support an alleged scam AFTER the owner made a plea deal with the government. However, hundreds of people donated money to a organization that promised to put the money toward "defending" ZeekRewards from the SEC. The owner of such organization was later jailed for defrauding the US government in an unrelated matter. The so-called defense ended up being an attorney who attended the receivership meetings, and filed several motions that was denied. He accomplished nothing useful except delay the process for the rest of the victims, and it was widely rumored (but never confirmed) that the rest of the money went to the organizer's private plane's upkeep.

They are the embodiment of sunk cost fallacy.

Scam Tactic: "Don't knock it until you try it" slogan is very bad advice

One of the most common arguments for income schemes is "don't knock it until you try it", i.e. "it paid me so it works". This is actually a VERY flawed argument. Recently I came across the Skeptoid episode: don't try it until you knock it. While that's about general skepticism, it works very well for financial scam debunking as well, as it destroys all the variations of the bad argument.

Don't Knock It Until You Try It?  Nah. 

Personal experience is "sample size of one". It is noise. It subject to sunk cost fallacy, subjective validation, self-superiority bias, confirmation bias, and all the other cognitive biases. Mankind invented science and scientific process to counteract such biases.  Personal observation is subjective, and therefore biased information. Advocating one to "try it" simply proves nothing.

Yet MLMers love to fly this particular argument. They value personal experience over all others, the exactly opposite of scientific process trying to filter out bad data. It is basically fully faith-based.

I was skeptical until I tried it

A true skeptic would know NOT to try it due to all the reason discussed above. The proper way to evaluate something is through scientific and statistical process from a large sample set, not through a single subjective personal experience.

Falling for a dare / lure to "try it" just makes you gullible, not skeptical. Yet MLMers selling nutritional supplements or unproven "treatments" love to fly this particular argument.  (also see "What's the harm" below)

I know it works, because it worked for me

So somehow, you're God, and what you experienced is the universal truth for everybody, eh? It's just your subjective experience, based on your circumstances at the time, and based on all your PRIOR memory and experiences. If any one else had different life history, experienced the same thing at a different time, under different circumstances, or any combination of such, the experience will be different.

What you experienced is only good for yourself. It is not a data point. It is anecdote.

SEC Halts Traffic Monsoon Ponzi Scheme, Reasserts that "Autosurf Ponzis" are illegal

The internet buzz on July 28th 2016 was the press release that SEC has halted the $207 Million Ponzi scheme called Traffic Monsoon.

Traffic Monsoon was operated by Charles Scoville, as a combination "internet traffic exchange and pay-per-click program" that solicited money from all over the world. It accepted money from at least 162000 investors primarily in US, India, and Russia by claiming to be a "highly successful advertising company", when in reality, more than 99% of the revenue was paid into the system by new investors, making it a classic Ponzi scheme.  Traffic Monsoon LLC is a Utah company. Scoville is believed to be in Dubai. SEC's motion to have an temporary freeze and receiver to take over the company has been granted.

Traffic Monsoon's primary product (which accounted for 99.6% of all revenue) is the "Adpack". At $50 each, purchaser is supposed to get 20 clicks on the banner (either they provide, or they can use one provided by Traffic Monsoon) and 1000 visitors from the traffic exchange, as well as "share in Traffic Monsoon's profit". In reality, TM was never able to fulfill the visitor promise. By its own counter, it can only provide about 1/10th of the visitors. In reality, TM operated as a $50 in, $55 out HYIP.

Those that track scams, such as the MLMSkeptic, would notice that this is structurally IDENTICAL to 12DailyPro (2005-2006) or Ad Surf Daily (2006-2008), both were also prosecuted as autosurf ponzi schemes.

What's more interesting is Charles Scoville himself has been observed operating several predecessors to Traffic Monsoon. There's TVIBUX, and there's AdHitsProfits, both are slight variations on the same ideas. Neither, however, made it big to hundreds of millions of dollars.

But first, let's explain what an autosurf is, and what an investment autosurf.

What is an autosurf? 

Autosurf is a type of Internet website traffic exchagne that automatically rotate advertised websites in the web browser.  Imagine leaving a browser window open to constantly display banners from all the other websites, which changes periodically. Each "view" earns you a "credit" which allows your site's banner some display time in other people's browser window.

Autosurf can operate as a "ponzi scheme" even if no money changes hands, if overall credits earned is in excess of total pageviews delivered, thus ensuring that there will always be credits left over.

Autosurf that involve money are known as Investment autosurfs.

OPINION: With HLF consenting to reforms, and Burks of ZeekRewards Guilty, justice prevailed, but work is never done

July 2016 has been a busy month.

On July 15, 2016, news was released that Herbalife has reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission where HLF agreed to a LONG list of reforms and pay a $200 million fine / reimbursement to the victims.

Then on July 22, 2016 Federal Court in North Carolina passed down the verdict... a Federal jury has convicted Paul Burks of ZeekRewards of all four counts of fraud and conspiracy to commit fraud.

MLMSkeptic has long criticized both schemes, both here on the blog, and on BehindMLM.com.

MLMSkeptic had analyzed the various comments, retorts, criticisms, and cheers of Ackman's epic short of Herbalife at end of 2012 and the subsequent PR war, and pointed out problems with such arguments.  Most of the critics of Ackman then believed that HLF was "too big to fail", or perhaps "not egregious enough to die, maybe fined".

So it is with much amusement and facepalming when "journalists" loudly proclaimed "FTC says Herbalife not a pyramid", when FTC said no such thing.

How did CNNMoney got it so wrong?
FTC never said HLF is not a pyramid scheme... 

You are welcome to search the actual FTC complaint and stipulation agreed to by HLF. "Pyramid scheme" was nowhere in the documents. Furthermore, when questioned by the press at the news conference, FTC Chairwoman Edith Ramirez was asked at least FOUR SEPARATE TIMES whether HLF is a pyramid scheme, and Ramirez repeatedly dodged the question (probably as a part of the settlement).

Q: I know that you’re not going to put any labels on this, but it seems to me if we look at the BurnLounge case, that while this complaint does not use the words “pyramid scheme”, would you agree that a prima facie case of a pyramid scheme is alleged with the allegations within the complaint?

A:  Again, I will leave it up to you to draw that conclusion. Our focus in this complaint was in addressing the core issues

When asked outright about HLF's own announcement... That FTC have determined HLF to be NOT a pyramid scheme...

Q: Did you review the language in their (Herbalife’s) press-release that sort of affirmatively said that they were not declared to be a pyramid scheme? Because they’re sort of having that as an outright headline.

A: I do not agree with that statement. The word “pyramid” does not appear in our complaint that is true, but um again the core facts that we’ve alleged, that we consider to be problematic with their compensation structure, are set forth in detail in our complaint. And again, I will leave it to readers to draw their own conclusions. But that they were determined to not be a pyramid… that would be inaccurate.

And indeed, checking the HLF website no longer shows any sort of language that claimed "FTC determined HLF not pyramid scheme"...

So you know which way the CNNMoney article was written... They were written from HLF's press release, not the FTC press release. It is... biased.  Shame, CNN. Shame on you for lazy reporting.

I am not listing all the changes that FTC managed to squeeze out of HLF. You can read the documents linked above yourself. It is a LONG list of reforms, and it will likely become a new standard much as Amway's settlement with FTC created the modern MLM back in 1979.  And that pretty much tells you the fact: HLF was a scam that required reforms so it is no longer operating as a scam. Any one who argues otherwise is simply denying reality.

I may do my own analysis later on these changes, but HLF is no longer the same company. They believe they can continue to thrive (or else they would not agreed to these changes), but we shall see.

Then we come to Zeek Rewards, and Paul Burks.

Cognitive Bias: Choice Supportive Bias (aka Post-hoc Rationalization)

Previously we have often talked about cognitive dissoance, which is basically when a person is faced with two sets of "truths", and they conflict, therefore one set of which must be false.

For example, let's say the person has joined a suspect scheme, and is withdrawing money bi-weekly, but not yet achieved breakeven. Then he's exposed to a source that explained that the scheme is a scam with trustworthy sources.

So, how does one resolve this conflict between two sets of facts... a) the scheme works, I am getting paid  and b) the scheme is a scam ?

One way the conflict can be resolved is through "choice supportive bias", also known as post-hoc rationalization. As the person is already in the scheme, the person is likely to choose to continue in the scheme and therefore decide that the trustworthy sources (that explain the scheme is a scam) are NOT acceptable.

Basically, the person wants the answer to be "scheme is fine" and thus chose that outcome, and came up with reasons to discount the trustworthy sources post-hoc (after the fact). Normal logic is  check all the sources, then arrive at the conclusion. This is the reverse... The person know the conclusion s/he wants, then come up with the reasons later.   It's motivated thinking.

As you can probably guess, motivated thinking means more often than not the person will reach the WRONG conclusion, since the conclusion was NOT deduced from logic, but emotion.

Let's look at some examples...

Another article of how WCM got smashed in China (AGAIN), translated

Previously #MLMskeptic translated the article from LegalDaily.com.cn about how WCM got smashed. This time we're translating a different article of the same event, with additional details.

http://tech.ifeng.com/a/20160514/41608055_0.shtml

海归硕士开空壳公司 以“虚拟货币”连环套诈骗数亿

Master Degree Open Shell Companies, "Cryptocurrency" Scammed Hundreds of Millions

2016年05月14日 08:17  14-MAY-2016 08:17来源：澎湃新闻 作者：邢丙银   Source: Pengpai News  Author: Xing Bing

2015年5月，广东肇庆市公安局鼎湖分局经侦大队接群众谢某报案称：其听信嫌疑人梁某花之言，以26000元的价格购买了万通奇迹社交资本云计算平台（以下简称“万通奇迹”）套装产品。开通万通卡成为会员后申请提现，原本每天可分红32美元，但至今未收到分红款项，本金也无法退回。

In May 2015, Zhaoqing City, Dinghu Branch, Economic Investigation Unit (EIU from now on), in Guangdong province received report from citizen Xie, who claimed that he was fooled into believe a Ms. Liang and purchased several Wantong Miracle  (WM from now on) Suites for 26000 RMB, received the WM card, and was supposed to receive daily profit of 32 USD, but so far received nothing, and there's no sign of his original investment.

经广东省公安厅经侦总队组织广州、深圳、肇庆三市警方同时开展行动，一起未经有关部门批准，假借投资原始股权理财、电子商务等新概念，以承诺还本付息来吸引公众投资的特大非法吸收公众存款案由此揭开。

With economic investigation unit of three cities: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Zhaoqing cooperating, they revealed a huge illegal securities crime, that never was approved or licensed by authorities, and uses buzzwords such as protoshare investment product, e-commerce, and so on, with promises of huge profits.

近日，深圳市公安局经侦支队向澎湃新闻透露，这起案件涉及全国28个省147个县市区5800多名投资人，涉案金额数亿元。目前该案在进一步侦办中。

Recently, Shenzhen EIU told Penpai News that this scam has victims in 28 provinces, 147 jurisdictions, and over 5800 victims, with amount of scam in the hundreds of millions of RMB. Investigation is ongoing.

办案民警介绍，2013年5月，万通奇迹系列融资产品由所谓某投资银行控股集团董事长徐某、CEO刘某及执行董事徐某忠、“金融学家”孙某等人策划成立。
Police investigator said in May 2013, WM series of securities was established by Mr. Xu, president of some investment bank holding group, a Mr. Liu, CEO, an executive director Mr. Xu something Zhong, and a "financial scholar" Mr. Sun

轻信万通奇迹投资收益高被套牢
Belief in WM Investment Profit, Ensnared in Trap


湖南长沙的陈女士是万通奇迹的投资者之一。2013年9月，好友陈某芬告知她称，有一个叫万通的公司发布了万通奇迹系列产品，投资收益高，让她了解一下。

Ms. Chen of Changsha, Hunan province, was an investment in WM. In September 2013, a friend Chen (something) Fang told her that this Wantong (WT from now on) company released a series of WM products, promised huge profits if invested. Asked her to look into it.

随后，陈女士在网上查询了有关万通公司老总徐某的资料。“网上的徐某是天使投资人，作为投资银行的董事，曾帮助7家中国公司在国外上市。”

Later, Ms. Chen searched the boss of Wantong, a Mr. Xu online. "Xu, online, is an angel investor, CEO of an investment bank, helped 7 Chinese companies get listed in foreign exchanges."

陈女士信以为真，加入了一个万通奇迹的QQ群，看到有消息称万通公司将于2013年11月在深圳举行招商会，禁不住诱惑的她从长沙赶到深圳参会。

Ms. Chen believed all these to be true, and joined a WM related QQ Chat group, and learned of a recruiting meeting held by Wantong in Shenzhen coming in November 2013. Unable to resist, she went to Shenzhen to attend the meeting.

据其回忆，当天有几百人参会，万通公司的执行董事周某口若悬河，描绘了一番美好前景，并回答了参会人员的提问。

Based on memory, there were hundreds of people there. Wantong's executive direct, Mr. Zhou, promised the sun and the moon, described a bright future, and answered all of the questions from the attendants.

“投资13000元，每天收益近100元，收益挺高。”会后不久，陈女士即出资39000元买了三套万通奇迹WCM705（每份1999美元）产品。

"If I invest 13000, I can profit 100 per day, that's very high profit." Not long after the meet, Ms. Chen bought in with 39000 RMB and bought three of the WM suite called "WCM705", at $1999 USD each.

陈女士介绍，万通奇迹系列套餐有5种投资金额，分别为399美元、799美元、1999美元、1599美元和1999美元，金额不同每日分红也不同。如购买一套1999美元产品，每日可分红16个电子币，相当于16美元。

Ms. Chen explained that WM suite has 5 amounts: $399, $799, $999, $1599, and $1999. Daily profit is dependent on the amount invested. For the $1999 suite, daily share is 16 E-points, worth 16 USD.

购买万通奇迹产品后，陈女士还在万通公司网站注册成为会员，登陆后可浏览个人资料及账户上的电子币。最初她还能正常提现，不料没几日，提现就出了问题。

After the purchase of these suites, Ms. Chen registered in WM website, and can view her account and accumulated e-points, and even cash out at the beginning, but soon, cashing out became a problem.

“先是被拖延，后来干脆就不能提现了，2014年4月，连网站都打不开了。”陈女士遂询问好友陈某芬的上线王某波，但对方也没说出个所以然来。

"First it was delays, then later all cashing out was stopped. By April 2014, the entire website is gone." Ms. Chen asked her friend's upline, a Mr. Wang (something) Po, but he had no explanation.

2015年5月，陈女士获悉徐某在深圳新开了万怡通国际投资发展（深圳）有限公司（下称“万怡通公司”），而且还将在一五星级酒店召开投资宣传会，她又赶了过去。

In May 2015, Ms. Chen hard that Mr. Xu has established a new company in Shenzhen called WanYiTong (WYT from now on), and will do a promo event at a 5-star hotel. She went to check it out.