Showing posts with label Scam Psychology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Scam Psychology. Show all posts

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Scam Psychology: Luck Blindness, or why lucky people see it as skill, not luck

Success is dependent on many different factors, but it can usually be summarized as
...be at the right place, at the right time, with the right training to spot the opportunity, and have enough resources to call upon to take advantage of the opportunity. 
It should be readily obvious that rich people have a better chance at success because they started out with better starting positions. Donald Trump was practically born with a silver spoon (his father was a real estate tycoon). Conversely, poor people can't succeed if they don't find the right connections to make their talent known, no matter how hard working they are.

Outliers (book)
Outliers (book) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
In the book "Outliers", Malcolm Gladwell reported that a good portion of professional hockey players found success due to their birthmonth, not solely via their talent. Why? If they were born in January, an arbitrary line used by the youth hockey leagues to divide up the years, they would enjoy physical advantage over the other kids who were born later in the year (generally speaking, of course) but still in the same league. And this physical advantage would lead to success, which would lead to them developing a taste for hockey, and eventually, into a pro career. Of course they trained hard, and they got some physical skills, but luck of having been born in month of January played a part in their success... They may not be aware of it, but that doesn't mean it didn't affect them.

Yet when you ask successful people how did they succeed, they will rarely if EVER mention luck. And in fact, some get downright offended if you try to bring up the role of luck in their success. This known as the "luck blindness" cognitive bias.

A few years ago Cornell economist Robert Frank wrote an opinion column for New York Times about luck and fairness, and for that he was invited on the air by Fox Business host Stuart Varney to talk about it. Varney opened the show by introducing Frank, then immediately jumped down Frank's throat: "Do you know how insulting that was, when I read that? I came to America with nothing 35 year sago. I've made something of myself, I think through hard work, talent, and risk-taking, and you're going to write in the New York Times that this is luck."  As you can imagine, it didn't go well for the rest of the interview.

Many people can look past their luck blindness though. Warren Buffet readily admits that he had won the 'genetic lottery' to have been born in the US to a loving family. And in a way, "gratefulness" (thanking God and the universe) is a way to acknowledge luck played a role.

How Luck Blindness Can Mislead You


Scammers know luck blindness is a button they can push to make you behave, along with sunk cost fallacy, hindsight bias, IKEA effect, and so on. By making you believe you are on your way to success, scammers will continue to take money from you, and you'll be happy doing so, because you believe you have learned skills, when it was either luck, or "arranged" success.


Saturday, May 14, 2016

Scam Spotting: too-good job offer, fake website, and Bitcoins

A redditor recently posted on /r/scams about a too-good-to-be-true job offer:
Hi all, I was hoping you could help me figure if this job offer is a scam. So I received an email saying that I had applied for customer service representative at another company, that was an agency they work with (note I did apply to this), and that they believe me to be better suited for a better job. The HR rep who contacted me said she's confident I stand a chance, and so she wants to forward my application to the hiring manager. The company is currently based on switzerland, and they are opening an office in my area (Toronto Canada) on May 30th. All she requested was that I fill out the employment application. There was nothing weird about the application, it asked for my usual contact info and two work references. No sin number or anything private, or that they couldn't get off my resume. The reason I'm weirded out is because the pay is substantial (for reference it's +20/hr and i'm still in school) and they mentioned the company works with bitcoin. The company name is Trimension Capital Holding. Does anybody have any experience that they'd be willing to share on if this is a scam or not?
This already has a couple red flags

  • Based in Switzerland, but opening an office in Toronto
  • Over $20 per hour for someone not yet out of school
  • Encouraged to apply even if not certain qualified (to do what, exactly?)
  • It involves "Bitcoins"
But let's track this down all the way. If you search for "Trimension Capital" on Google, you will get back a Trimension Capital GmbH at Baarerstrasse 135, 6301 Zug, Switzerland. So far, it matches. 

My first link took me to moneyhouse.ch profile fo the company, and we larned that company was founded in 2012 as "Pinewood Capital GmbH", changed name to "Trimension Capital GmbH" in 2013, and changed to "Trimension Capital Holding GmbH" in 2014. It's headed by Thomas Bieri. Under "contact" it shows website as trimension-capital.com

MoneyHouse.ch says the website should be trimension-capital.com

Next couple links goes to trimensioncapital.com   NO DASH!!!!!!!


Something is very fishy here. Let's check DNS at WHO.IS

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Scam Psychology: Presumption of hate

One of the more... insidious aspects of MLM is how its members will often NOT listen to "reason", even if it's coming from people they used to trust, like family members and best friends. They are often screaming for some understanding, that they really are trying to improve their situation, and why are people around them so... defeatist, and so on. They will appear to be completely brainwashed.

(Sidebar: China claims to have found a new type of paranoid disorder they temporarily named pyramid cult sales disorder. )

But what motivates such... hate? It's a combination of factors, but generally, it has to do with how you perceive people on the other side, and its origin was longstanding.

In a research by Liane Young at Boston College, it was revealed that both Democrats and Republicans (political parties in the US) claim that they were motivated by positive emotions such as love and loyalty to their party members, and their opponents were motivated primarily by hate and animosity.

In other words: "I think you hate me, therefore I hate you."  It's basically preemptive hate.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Scam absurdities: "An honest Ponzi" is still illegal (duh)

Those of you who read articles in general may recall something about MMM... If not, here's a TL;DR version:

MMM, or Mavrodi's Money Machine, is a fraud company founded by Sergei Mavrodi, his brother Vyacheslav Mavrodi, and Olga Melnikova. With its start in 1989 Sergei tried to do legit business, but was chased down for tax evasion by 1992. By 1994, Sergei had gone into financial market and with the Russian economy in hyperinflation he was promising profit of 1000% percent a year with a full-on TV campaign as well as a "free metro ride day" where they paid for EVERYBODY's metro ride for a day in Moscow.

In 1993 and 1994 it was estimated that MMM was taking in 100 BILLION rubles PER DAY for its shares. Party finally ended in Mid 1994 when tax police closed MMM for tax evasion. However, Mavrodi was able to manipulate the victims into voting him into Russian Dumas (house of representatives) by claiming government closed MMM, not him, and if they do that he'll pass measures to pay them back. Elected official was also immune from arrest. Mavrodi's run came to and end when the Dumas chose to cancel his immunity in 1995, and MMM finally declared bankruptcy in 1997.

However, Mavrodi went on to start several more scams, including "Stock Generation" (closed 2002, Mavrodi arrested and convicted 2007), MMM2011, MMM-India, and MMM-Global.

The interesting parts about MMM2011 and the last few schemes is its.... "honesty", so to speak. MMM2011 was described as...
"This is a pyramid. It is a naked scheme, nothing more ... People interact with each other and give each other money. For no reason!"  (source)
Which brings us to the "honest Ponzi"...   Is it a Ponzi scheme if the owners admits to it?

Of course it is. Does a weasel stop being a weasel by admitting it is a weasel?

Yet that's what many scammers want you to believe... that as long as they paper over any irregularities with enough disclaimers... they can't be "liable".


Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Scam Psychology: Idiot's Guide to Idiocy... and how to avoid it

It is very often in scam psychology that the victim refused to accept that they have been victimized, and they often square off against the critics. However, here are some questions they should be asking themselves... Are they *really* arguing best evidence... or merely best "intentions"?

1. What exactly are you arguing for? 

Often, proponents of a scheme have very different arguments. The ones I've seen are:

(Scheme name) is [mostly] legal!
(Scheme name) pays me [and that's good enough for me, never mind legal!]
Go pick on some [bigger evil] and leave (Scheme name) alone!

Some folks even managed to do all three at once.

But think about it, only the first item is a real "defense" of the scheme. The other two are tacit admissions that the scheme may indeed be shady, if not outright illegal.


2. Are you arguing or merely denying? 

There's a big difference between arguing, and denying.

Arguing means both sides present their best argument, and analyzes the other side's argument for flaws.

Denying simply means you insist that the other side is wrong, wrong, and wrong, without analysis.

Don't see the difference? Watch this comedy skit "Argument Clinic" courtesy of Monty Python:




3. Does your argument SOUND weak? 

A lot of scheme defenders, when trying to defend certain potentially illegal parts of the scheme, end up sounding like a whiny cat, because their argument end up as...

"But you don't *have* to do that... It's optional."

For example:

"But you don't have to recruit more sellers (It's just that you make more money if people you recruited also recruit more sellers)"

"But you don't have to buy stuff every month (If the people you recruited buy enough so your "group volume" qualifies you for commission)"

Now repeat that in a whiny kid's voice, and you'll see how weak that argument was.

It's also a bogus argument, because it's tacit admission that the scheme has at least one potentially illegal / amoral component. It's roughly equivalent to "I smoked (pot) but I didn't inhale".  That's a VERY weak argument.


4. Are you arguing from "might" or "meek"? 

Are you using "might" or "meek" for your arguments? Or just whatever that suits your argument? Are they even relevant?

Many promoters often invoke bandwagon fallacy (i.e. X people joined, Y amount of money spent, Z celebrities endorsed, etc.) That's the "might".

Many promoters adopt the "meek" attitude when they whine about government persecution, conspiracy of rich, and so on and so forth.

They are NOT relevant! Those are WEAK arguments! Find better ones!


Friday, November 27, 2015

Scam Tactics: Attribute Transfer

Scammers want you to trust them, and they usually try to invoke something that we respect and revere, then use "attribute transfer" to get you to transfer the respect and reverence onto the scammers. Many scams invoke religion, patriotism, celebrity, and such, in order to transfer authority, sanction, and prestige to their scam, so that the victims are more likely to accept it than reject it out of hand.

What is Attribute Transfer? 

Attribute transfer relies on easily recognized symbols linked to popular and accepted concepts. Cross, Jesus, Flag, Cartoon, Prayer, Military Service (in some areas), large and old companies, famous investors with loads of money, scientists and doctors (in white lab coats) and so on. They wish you to associate the attributes of the popular concept or symbol with this new scheme that they have.

It can be summarized as "we are kinda like that more popular thing".

This is related, but not the same as excitation-transfer theory in psychology, which is defined as "how residual excitation from one stimulus amplify the response to a different stimulus". One of the most often given examples is the cliche advice "take a girl on a date to do something really exciting like roller coaster in hopes of she associate the excitement with you".


Profitable Sunrise brochure
using Christ the Redeemer image

Example: Profitable Sunrise 

Profitable Sunrise is an international ponzi and pyramid scheme shut down in 2013 that supposedly operates out of England and solicited investments with slogan "profit with every sunrise" (which is itself a symbol) and also used the symbol of the "Christ the Redeemer statue" in Brazil (see right).

Profitable Sunrise promised payout of 1.6% to 2.7% DAILY and justified these profits by claiming that they make short-term usurious rate "bridge loans" to large businesses. Yet nobody in Europe can track down this company. The executive, "Roman Novak", apparently does not exist, as no one seem to have ever met him.

In the US its most notorious promoter of Profitable Sunrise was Nanci Jo Frazer of Ohio, who used a church / charity called "Focus Up Ministries", which was later renamed "Defining Vision Ministries" for her recruitment purposes, along with her husband and another co-conspirator.  As a part of settlement with state of Ohio, they are to pay back $108146.61 over the next TEN YEARS, AND have her "ministries" dissolved. The fine is substantially reduced from original judgment of 710000 dollars.

Nanci Jo Frazer and gang was also known to have released fake news that claimed she had been exonerated. You can still find it when you Google her name. It's bogus.

Scammers invoked attributes of religion, Jesus, sunrise (a generally good symbol), and so on to make their scheme look more realistic than it is.



Example: USFIA


USFIA started back in 2012/2013 when it infiltrated China as "American Mining 美洲犬業" claiming to offer amber jewelry at discounted prices, but will pay people if they invest money in "amber units" AND introduce yet more investors. Its owner, Steve Chen 陳力 had several previous ventures including Amkey and NGTalk that had failed or withered. Chinese government caught on in 2014 and arrested over a dozen local representatives in a nation-wide raid, but failed to stop the scam as Steve Chen operates out of the US city of Arcadia, in the suburbs of Los Angeles and based his USFIA (and various other entities, such as AFG) there. Two of the suspects escaped China to Thailand, and was repatriated as a part of "Operation Foxhunt 2014". However, the root of the problem was not destroyed, and USFIA quickly rebooted itself by late 2014 by adopting a new American name: US Fine Investment Arts, and a new Chinese name 富豪集團 (Royal Group), and shifted to "investment in Gemcoin, a new cybercurrency backed by amber". It then proceed to claim their cybercurrency is "approved" by California law, and just look at Bitcoin's meteoric rise.

USFIA was closed in 2015 by coordinated raid between SEC, State of California, FBI, US Marshal Service, and so on. A receiver took over the company and fired all employees immediately and proceed to take inventory of all assets.  Receiver's first report shows that they were barely able to find about 20 million, and Steve Chen has chosen NOT to provide a list of his assets, claiming his 5th amendment privilege to not incriminate himself. All the supposed amber jewelry with astronomical prices are vastly overpriced, and supposed inventory of amber to "guarantee value" is worth "nominal value", i.e. souvenir grade, not gem grade. The "law" that Steve Chen and minions claimed permitted Gemcoin actually repealed a law that says business may ONLY use US dollars and in no way validates or approves "Gemcoin". There are even rumors that one of the VPs in the company claimed to be related to President Obama. There was no proof that Gemcoin is actually a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. So far the only proof appears to be a PDF file that contained screenshots of "transactions" online.

USFIA is also famously used several celebrities at its events, including former mayor of Arcadia John Wuo who appeared in multiple events singing praises of the scheme and its leader. In 2015 John Wuo was a city councilman and quickly resigned after USFIA office was closed, citing "health reasons".

Scammers tried to invoke attribute of state government, bitcoin and cybercurrency in general.


How to See Through Attribute Transfer


To see through attribute transfer, you have to look through the examples and stick with just the facts and general idea, such as

  • What does the speaker want? 
  • According to the speaker, WHY should you believe the speaker? 
  • What attribute are they trying to transfer onto themselves from the symbol? 
  • Is there any LEGITIMATE connection between the speaker and the symbol?
  • What's left of the speaker's argument AFTER you cross out the attributes?   

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Scam Psychology: Misconstruing quote from Zig Ziglar about Positive Thinking

Every once in a while, you'll see some MLMer pull out this quote as a reaction to criticism:
Positive thinking will let you do everything better better than negative thinking will. 
Remember, this is in reaction to criticism, not "general application", that the quoter basically threw the quote out, meaning "why are you so negative? think positive!"

Live video feed of Zig Ziglar speaking at the ...
Live video feed of Zig Ziglar speaking at the Get Motivated Seminar at the Cow Palace in Daly City, California.
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Some of the folks may have even gotten the source, Zig Ziglar, correct. Zig Ziglar is a almost legendary salesman and motivational speaker. He has left a lot of positive legacy when he died in 2012 after decades in the field.

I have a lot of respect for Zig Ziglar, which is why I need to point out that this is a total mangling of the original Zig Ziglar quote, and is taken out of context.

In other words, Zig Ziglar NEVER meant for this quote to be used in deflection of criticism. And to understand this, you need to read the ENTIRE quote by Zig Ziglar, which will prove it was taken out of context.

Follow me...

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Scam Psychology: The Pressure to Excel and Conform (and the courage to turn away)

People from all walks of life join MLMs, often without sufficient due diligence. Even if they did, they often convinced themselves (Semmelweiss Reflex) to suppress their own feelings of revulsion and doubt to keep going, even if it involved stepping on the back of other people to success, as well as lie, tell half-truth, and other things that are soul-crushing.

Listen to this former Mary Kay sales director (one rank away from the highest: national sales director, top 2% of all participants) when she walked away... Because she realized her success came at expense of other participants.



You can read the rest at pinktruth.com, or watch the full 20/20 episode here. Skip to half way point to get to the story directly.

The sad truth is some people NEVER wake up from this self-denial, because they crave outside approval so much, they were willing to forgo their ethics for outside approval.

Let this be a warning to all... "success" may come from stepping on other people's backs, even if they were smiling when you do it.



Sunday, October 25, 2015

Scam Psychology: Victim Mindset is all about asset recovery, not justice

JusticeAlwaysLate, a FB blogger in Malaysia who primarily blogs in Chinese / Cantonese, recently relayed a little anecdote which I thought was rather... illustrative of the victim mindset. The scam name is not important, but it's a pretty big one in China that resulted in arrests earlier this year called Nanning (南寧) any way, it goes like this:


有个南宁受害者来找哦,丈夫倾家荡产相信兄弟,投资了下去。先是云数贸, 然后圆梦都亏大本,兄弟建议他用南宁回本,有事他包。
A certain victim of Nanning scam came to tell a sob story. Husband is about to go bankrupt, believing in a buddy, invested everything, against and again, first it was YSM (a scam fronted by a Chinese guy), then YC and lost big in both. Buddy told him he can make it back with Nanning, and the buddy claims he'll cover the losses if it happens.  
这个丈夫就把所有钱丢进去了南宁骗局,留下老婆和父母,家里一直缺钱用。他问我怎么办。
Thus, this husband threw everything that's left into the Nanning scam, leaving wife and parents with nothing. She asked me, what should she do? Family needs money now to live.  
我说:我叫她报警捉人。。
I said, go to the cops, have the perps arrested.  
她又说:不能,这样会拿不回钱,兄弟答应丈夫在等一段日子就会把钱还给丈夫。。请问现在该怎么办?
She said, no way, can't get the money back that way. Buddy promised that he'll make up the money later. What should she do now?  
我说:那么给我他们的资料与细节,我炸到他们出门都没得躲,
I said, give me their information and background. I'll reveal them so they can't hide anywhere.  
她又说:这样就更没有办法还钱给我们了。请问现在该怎么办?
She said again, no way they'll return the money if you do that. Now what?  
我就说:现在是他欠你们钱,为什么你要替老千着想?
I said, why are you thinking for these crooks? THEY owe YOU money!  
她又说:不是不要报警不给你资料,等我们拿到钱了我们会去做的。
She said, It's not that she's not going to the cops, she had to get the money first, THEN she'll go to the cops.  
我说:那你找我干嘛?闲聊吗?
I said, so why are you here? Chitchat?  
她的最后回复是:好,当我看错你了。
Her final answer was, alright, guess I was mistaken about you. 

The victims have primary emphasis on recovery of money. They realize they had been deceived, but they don't want justice done. They want to be made whole first. This greed (what got them scammed in the first place) lead them to believe that they will get the money back, either someone promised them so, or they decided to lock their morals in the basement and went all out recruiting (i.e. turned judas goat) so they can get their money back.

They don't realize that the money is GONE, and they've just seeing excuses after excuses.

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Scam Psychology: the echo chamber effect (and how it turns you into a recluse)

Sheeple
That's sheeple. Does that look familiar to you?
(Photo credit: hermetic hermit)
MLM is all about your "team", team spirit and camaraderie, don't let the team down, we'll be there for you, blah blah blah.

But have you ever considered the NEGATIVE effects of a team environment?  (Or is that merely "negativity" to be avoided?)

When you are in a social group such as a team, clan, whatever, you automatically try to fit in. You will conform yourself to the team, just as the team will conform to you. You will all have to same position, same opinion, etc. You may have differences in minor details, but you will go along on the "big stuff".

You are suffering from the "echo chamber effect", because you only hang out with people that you think have similar ideology to yours. Your ideas are echoing back to you, and other people's ideas are passing through you, and being echoed back to them. Soon everybody think alike, and like seeks like. Such things does NOT happen when you have a mix of people holding opposite views and have a nice proper discussion of the issues.

The advent of internet only made it EASIER for like to seek like. You can find all sorts of bull**** on the Internet nowadays, and forums hosting such. If you can't find one, start one yourself. People will agree on absurd topics such as "ISIS has infiltrated every church in America" to "school shootings were staged with shill mourners".

After a while in the echo chamber, you will suppress your own thoughts because you reasoned that the your group would never accept your "anti-group" thoughts. That's known as the Semmelweis Reflex.

That's fine when the ideas are logical and proper, but when they are not, it can be very dangerous.

Scammers have understood this for a long time. They are out seeking sheeple who hadn't gotten wise to the schemes, esp. when the scheme caters to one of an universal wants: trying to make one's life better.  However, scammers will pervert such wants into feeding your fears and sell you a bogus solution.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Scam Tactics: The Galileo Gambit

Does everyone remember who Galileo Galilei is? He's the one who taught heliocentrism (the sun is the center, not Earth) and was persecuted by the Roman Catholic Church because heliocentrism ran counter to the Biblical literalism of the time (that Earth is the center and everything revolves around Earth).

So what is Galileo Gambit? An argument tactic that combines three separate fallacies (appeal to minority, appeal to authority, conditional fallacy) in one concise package. 
They made fun of Galileo, and he was right
They make fun of me, therefore I am right.
Galileo Gambit is generally used to dismiss the "widely held truth". Creationists and Climate change deniers often use Galileo Gambit and claiming persecution. (Indeed, Rick Perry sparked controversy when he claimed that science on climate change was 'not settled yet' in 2011 and added "Galileo got outvoted for a spell")

There is a variation called Semmelweis Gambit that was often used by "alternative medicine", or otherwise known by its less complimentary acronym, SCAM (supplemental, complementary, and alternative medicine).  Ignaz Semmelweis was a doctor that provided the start of germ theory in 1800's Vienna, but his views were not accepted during his time and he died a broken man, with his views only came into acceptance after his death.

Another variation is known as "Three Stages of Truth" often misattributed to Arthur Schopenhauer (who never wrote such a thing). Let us look at an example:

Here is one form of it used in a recent... suspect scheme (that had since collapsed.)

Friday, September 25, 2015

Scam Tactic: Speak in Half-truths, or how Vemma is trying to create value out of bull****.

Speaking in half truths is the best way to scam. You sound as if you are telling the truth, esp. if that's all the truth you know. You can't be lying if you don't even know the other half, right?

That's why you should fact-check any PR claims, esp. those without any links for you to verify the claims, and if the evidence themselves need to be fact-checked.

Let's take one recent example, when a Vemma fan (what I'd refer to as a Vembot) posted basically a cut-n-paste PR speech "how dare you compare Verve to Red Bull". Okay, I made up that title, but that is accurate.  His words in blue, my comment will be in red.
For those trying to do a cost comparison with Red Bull, you are obviously missing the entire concept of Vemma.
Oh, I think we understand you all too well. It is you who don't understand Vemma... 
The clinically studied nutritional supplement Vemma cost about $2.00 per serving, if you purchased the stand alone Vemma product. 
But did you actually read the two "clinical studies"? (NOTE 1)
Verve has the same 2 ounces of Vemma, plus the components of the energy drink. Yes the price is about $2.80 a can, but $2.00 is the Vemma supplement. So the energy drink component is really only $.83.
You set your own prices. You can say it's worth $1000 if you'd like. There's nothing to compare it to. In fact, there's not even any proof that mangosteen has any benefit on the body. But more on that later. (NOTE 2)
You show me where red bull has 12 vitamins, 63 minerals, mangosteen, aloe vera and green tea. Show me where Red Bull paid 250000 to run full clinical studies to see exactly what happened in your blood after drinking it.
You show me what those "63 minerals" are, and what effect they have on the body. Show me how ECGC is not harmful to the body. Show me how two little studies in China, on self-reported results prove "what happened in blood". (NOTE 3 again)  
Until you can show me that trying to compare the to is like comparing a Ford Fiesta to a Ford Mustang. They are both Fords (energy drinks), but they are not the same thing and they dont cost the same thing.
Vemma is no-name energy drink with an unproven secret ingredient. The analogy is bull****. 
Now let's look at the footnotes...

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Scam Psychology: How Context Makes You Irrational (even though it made sense to you... at the time)

Obamacare Protest at Supreme Court
Obamacare Protest at Supreme Court (Photo credit: southerntabitha)
We are all affected by context of a question than we care to admit, and by presenting certain things with the wrong context, scammers lead us into making irrational decisions, such as join a scam and hand over money.

Let's take the subject "Affordable Care Act", for example, otherwise known as "Obamacare".

Did you know that more people support "Affordable Care Act" than "Obamacare", even though it's the SAME THING? 46% oppose Obamacare, but only 37% oppose Affordable Care Act. People even protested at the US Supreme Court.

[Source: USA Today quoting CNBC poll]

This is ignorance. And this is in the general public.

Scammers LOVE this, which is why there are Obamacare scams.  Just as there are scams about everything.

So why are more people against "Obamacare"? Because the term was used by Republicans as as derogatory term. Never mind that it's actually Mitt Romney (Republican) that really came up with it for his own state of Massachussetts, leading to a new term, "Obamneycare".

In short, Affordable Care Act doesn't have the "context", the derogatory meaning that Obamacare has.

The lesson is very simple: you have to be knowledgeable and ignore context to make rational decisions.

In business and investment, that's called due diligence, which is really just "fact checking" and "critical thinking". You get all the facts and look beyond the context.

And scammers want you to throw due diligence out the window... by hitting you with slogans to ignore due diligence as well as give you skewed context (that are half-truths, misunderstandings, embellishments, conflicting info, logical fallacies, outright lies, etc.) to lead you into their scam.


Saturday, September 5, 2015

Bad Argument: Blame game and god-complex

God-complex is a psychological condition where the afflicted has inflated belief of personal ability, privilege, or infallibility. It is not a clinical term but it was coined by psychoanalysis pioneer Ernest Jones. Basically the afflicted believe that one's a minor deity.

And MLM, due to its persistence in "positive thinking", as well as tap into one's innate belief that one "deserves better", often encourages participants to develop god-complex: that the individual is better at sales than s/he actually is, that the individual deserves to be treated with respect (more than s/he has earned), and the individual is infallible and any proof to the contrary must be wrong.

Here's a very clear example of such: You all are wrong, I am right (trust me).

A person that goes by screenname Shufel posted the following on BehindMLM about Lyoness, a suspect ponzi scheme on multiple continents.
You are all very , but very wrong. My respectful advice is to check everything very well before you do some statement. Do not collect your information from some random blog in internet or you may be collecting wrong information (Like in this one) .
Shufel posted the message twice, without providing ANY proof for his viewpoint (i.e. "you are all wrong") and merely insinuated, with a lot of condescension, that whatever posted at BehindMLM was not the truth, without providing anything to prove such.

Shufel expect you to believe him or her without proof, which is faith, and ignore any evidence to the contrary.  Thus, a nearly perfect example of god-complex.

But it points at something slightly deeper... the "blame game"... as demonstrated by Shufel in the same post later:
 if some one have a big Lifeline (translation: group of Lyoness downlines) and don’t have income that’s only one option : He is not doing is work right. (sic)
Ah, the familiar "if you fail, it must be your own fault" blame game in MLM.



Sunday, July 19, 2015

MLM Basics: Is Multi-Level Marketing a Shared Delusion?

In a blogpost back in 2014, author Robert Fitzpatrick, who operates the website PyramidSchemeAlert postulated that Multi-level Marketing, i.e. MLM is really a delusion that redefined various terms to create a myth around itself that cloaked its true nature (as a part of his "Myths of MLM" series). It is an interesting viewpoint, and I can see how he came to that conclusion. The premise can be narrowed down to five separate yet related delusions that MLM participants perpetuate. Fitzpatrick claimed that by accepting the myth jargon, the participants gave the MLM myth power over themselves.

The MLM Myth has five major components, according to Fitzpatrick:

1) MLM is described as "direct selling", but few if any participants actually make retail sales or profits from such.

2) MLM is described as "income opportunity" even though most MLM participants lose money.

3) MLM is described as a "business" even though there is no fair exchange of value... Majority of people lose money.

4) MLM is described as "legal" even though it's merely "have not been proven to be illegal", i.e. presumed innocent

5) MLM is described as "network", "relationship", "personal" even though it disrupts the social norm.

Let us examine each part and see if Mr. Fitzpatrick is right.

Is MLM really Direct Selling? 

From my personal experience, most people in MLM had learned to emphasize the "multi-level" part of MLM rather than the "marketing" part. I have read comments of hundreds of people on BehindMLM and many commenters believe one cannot succeed in MLM without recruiting, and the emphasis should be on recruiting and retaining downlines, rather than product sales. Not that BehindMLM attracts the "typical" MLMer, of course.

It is also interesting that the MLM industry association is called Direct Selling Association, even though the organization actually predated MLM by about 20-30 years. DSA started its life as "Agent Credit Association" in 1910, and its members are companies that employed door-to-door sales, and Avon, then known as California Perfume Company, was a founding member. It wasn't until 1968 that it adopted its current name, Direct Selling Association.  Most people accept that MLM was popularized with California Vitamin Company, later Nutrilite, in the 1930's, which eventually became an Amway brand, founded in 1950's. Thus, MLM came AFTER direct selling, but took over the name direct selling.

For what it's worth, Avon was direct sales up to 2005, when it went multi-level. Didn't seem to help its bottom line though.

There is no doubt that MLM is supposed to have a direct sales component, but in reality, this is rarely put into practice. When the companies themselves count purchases BY the distributors as "sales" for calculating commission, instead of actual retail sales by the associates, there really is little if any incentive to retail. Even Direct Selling Association want to formalize "self-consumption" as a RIGHT of MLM distributors, i.e. they have the RIGHT to NOT retail what they buy, and still have that counted for commission. A couple states even put that into law thanks to lobbying by DSA.

Indeed, in the past decade or two DSA has fought every attempt by various groups to require the companies to document how much retail was actually performed by the industry. Any stats they compile are based on estimates by the companies themselves based on sales to distributors.

In 2013/2014 Herbalife was accused by none other than Bill Ackman to be a huge pyramid scheme. You'd think that Herbalife would simply produce some numbers proving they were retailing their products, and if they didn't, they have a WHOLE YEAR to gather that data, but no, instead, it spent money on hiring lobbyists instead, and hire survey teams, but NO ACTUAL RETAIL FIGURES. And DSA said nothing, because DSA is not a regulatory body... DSA is a lobbying organization for the companies.

Think about it. The Direct SELLING association does NOT want its members to prove they are actually SELLING stuff, through their distributors, to the public. And claims it is a RIGHT for distributors to NOT SELL their stock.

Verdict: MLM is now mostly NOT direct selling, even though it was meant to be.

Is MLM really an income opportunity? 

Proponents of MLM claimed this is a way to earn supplemental income, part-time income, side job, with potential transition to full-time if you find yourself attracted to it.

The REAL pros in the business knows that to make serious income in MLM you need to dedicate two to five YEARS to build your organization and during which you will achieve MINIMAL income.

Thus one can be answered pretty definitively: NO, not for a vast majority of the people involved.

From DSA's own statistics for 2014:
  • 18.2 million people involved in direct selling
  • Estimated product sold 34.47 billion dollars
That's average SALES of... $1894 dollars per person PER YEAR. And that's just revenue, not profit. We haven't taken into account any of the expenses involved either. Even if the person was able to achieve 50% profit, (i.e. $947) AFTER counting expenses (highly unlikely), and spent only two hours a week on this... That's only that's $9.10 per hour, not much above Federal minimum wage of $7.50 an hour.

Furthermore, Herbalife, in their own defense, claimed that 73% of their own distributors DID NOT JOIN FOR INCOME. This is one of their own slides released as rebuttal of Bill Ackman's claim that Herbalife is a pyramid scheme.
Herbalife, in 2013, claimed that 73% of distributors did NOT join for income as primary reason

Thus, MLM can be an income opportunity... for a tiny minority of people who made it to the top. The rest of you are likely to lose money or earn minimum wage, or not even that, as you get no benefits or even income security, unlike a minimum wage job.

Verdict: MLM in general is not income opportunity (with small exceptions)

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Scam Tactic: Gaslighting (indignant denial)

English: This bright gas lamp has three mantle...
English: This bright gas lamp has three mantles in UK
 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Ever heard of "gaslighting"?

From Wikipedia: Gas-lighting (or gaslighting) is a form of mental abuse in which information is twisted or spun, selectively omitted to favor the abuser, or false information is presented with the intent of making victims doubt their own memory, perception, and sanity.

Scammers LOVE gaslighting, because they need to destroy victim's sense of reality, so they can substitute their own alternate reality, where selling is buying, black is white, and profit is loss.

Scammers deny facts that they don't want to explain (i.e. inconvenient truth). They will insist that the victims remembered it wrong. It wasn't like that. If victim is already weak-willed, victim will question his or her own reality... Did it happened the way I remembered it, or did I just imagined it? Was the way I learned selling really what selling means?

Scam victims who complained are dismissed as "whiners" and shouted down by shills, denigrated as "unbelievers" who "do not share the vision". Often, there are outright threats, from threats to cancel membership (triggering FOMO, fear of missing out), to verbal abuse to threats of physical abuse to legal threats (Cease and Desist orders) to even death threats. The victims were ostracized and put down emotionally, manipulated into believing it was their own fault for failing, that the system worked for everybody else, thus it must be the victim's own fault. Any one who failed is automatically weak, unbelieving, and sometimes, traitors who want to blame their own failings on the organization, and so on.

Pyramid schemes are very good at that. If one wins, the system gets credit as "the system works!" Individuals get no recognition unless some are needed to be shown in award ceremonies, but only to entice people who are on the fence. If one does NOT win one is blamed for the failings, as in "You must have screwed up! It worked for everybody else!"

Monday, July 13, 2015

Scam Psychology: How does a scam encourage people to adopt a lost cause?

When one questions scams and suspect schemes for as long as the MLMSkeptic did, one'd seen a lot of things, such as people claiming that they forgive ZeekRewards Ponzi even before we knew the full extent of damage (just under a billion dollars), how Paul "ZeekRewards" Burks told newspaper "don't blame me, I never told them to invest more than they can afford", and so on.

Jael Phelps picketing Trinity Episcopal Church...
Jael Phelps of Westboro Baptist Church picketing Trinity Episcopal Church in Tulsa, Oklahoma
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
However, some time the... fanaticism of certain fans of particular schemes rival that of the pro-life-crazies (who had assassinated doctors that performed abortions, for example, try reconciling that!), or perhaps those of Westboro Baptist Church (well-known crazies of the US). Others appear to be willing to "go down with the ship".

A recent example is Emgoldex, which just rebranded itself as Global InterGold, and some "diehard" Emgoldex fans, eager to defend their own stance on the scam, engaged in conspiracy theory with zero regard to logic.

I won't bore you with long history of Emgoldex. Suffice to say this European based Ponzi scheme had spread via help of the Internet, and nobody really knows where it's being ran out of (may have been Russia) but it was denounced as illegal all over the world, including the US (both state and Federal level), Malaysia, Philippines, even Dubai UAE where it allegedly was based out of.

Yet there are still backers who claimed that "you just don't understand Emgoldex", "you just don't understand MLM", "you are prejudiced against MLM", and so on and so forth. You can find many of them in the comments on this topic.  Some of them are certain of their righteous cause, others are somewhat doubtful but "hopeful" that they had made the right choices, even when facts started to stack against them.

Monday, June 29, 2015

Scam Psychology: Know Just Enough to be Dangerous (to yourself and others)

Do you know just enough to be dangerous? You don't think so?

You are probably wrong, as scientists have LONG documented "Dunning-Kruger Effect". Basically, for a given skill, incompetent people will
  • fail to recognize their own lack of skill
  • fail to recognize genuine skill in others
  • fail to recognize extremity of their inadequacy
Basically, you are so incompetent, you don't even recognize that you ARE incompetent. It's be like a person born and grew up near-sighted, that he thinks the world really is slightly blurry, and didn't even realize he needed glasses. 

This is related to, but is not the same as overconfidence effect, in that a person always thinks his confidence in his or her judgments is greater than the ACCURACY of those judgments. This is especially true when the confidence is high. People who were 100% sure of their answer in a certain test that turned out to be only 80% right are guilty of such overconfidence.

This is very common in scams, where the victims were recruited to be a co-conspirator, (i.e. to also recruit, for pyramid and Ponzi schemes, and/or to act as "anecdote witnesses", promoters, and so on), where the victim, overconfident in his or her skills to spot a scam (often armed with such myths as "we have a product, thus we can't be a pyramid scheme", or "I got paid, thus it can't be a scam"), failed to even realize s/he is not competent to even recognize his/her incompetence and failed to recognize proper advice from others.

The scammers are experts in making you believe you made the right decision(s) all along by give you the mushroom treatment, through "learned optimism", except they do it through lie and deceit.

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Scam Absurdities: Stupid Meme passed on by MAPS idiots

Recently I came across this really really really stupid meme posted by a "Lloyd Dotson"




There are (at least) 3 things that were VERY VERY wrong with this meme. Did you spot them yet?

When you think you did, continue.


Tuesday, May 5, 2015

How Much Is a Scam Like a Cult: 2015 Edition

Previously MLMSkeptic have discussed the similarities between a cult of believers (about a common theme) and a large scale scam such as a pyramid or a Ponzi scheme (and in certain cases, multi-level marketing).

The Outcast (1954 film)
The Outcast (1954 film) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
A new article on ScienceBasedMedicine.org brought an alternative viewpoint... on how believers of a scam act much like believers of  various alternative medicine modalities. And it is a report on an WIRED article called "An Alternative-medicine Believer's Journey Back to Science", where a doctor (MD and PhD) and wife and two autistic boys fell for the "autism biomed" industry where members tell each other about treatments that nobody had proven to work, but "try it any way", many even promoted by other doctors. After years of such, and a lapse while in Disneyland, they found that none of what they did actually had ANY effect, and the boys actually IMPROVED when they were removed from the supplement regimen, or at least did no worse. After further tests over months and years, he publicly renounced his involvement in the autism biomed movement and denounced unproven treatments and such. As a result, he'd been branded an apostate and had received death threats.

An apostate is someone who had examined the beliefs in detail, even followed those beliefs for a time, then had an epiphany and chose to REJECT the belief instead. As a result, he's now considered an outcast.

There are many apostates among network marketing. Indeed, due to the amount of churn rate, it can be argued that there are many more apostates than believes in Network marketing. According to Robert L. FitzPatrick of PyramidSchemeAlert.org, of the 10 million people that had estimated to have joined Amway since its founding, 9.3 million had been "churned" through and quit. Thus, the alleged apostates should vastly outnumber the believers. (9.3 million vs. 700K)

However, the similarity between network marketing a cult (or religion) is how they treat the apostates: very badly.