tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7600505010903219424.post2339963810058667455..comments2024-03-27T17:02:31.780-07:00Comments on A (MLM) Skeptic: Scam Psychology: What is Survivorship Bias and How It Screws You Over (esp. in MLM)GuyReviewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17270600804829601202noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7600505010903219424.post-80114771112237005832020-12-25T09:10:25.534-08:002020-12-25T09:10:25.534-08:00You're missing the point completely.
You tho...You're missing the point completely. <br /><br />You thought:<br /><br />>> The planes that made it back DID do something right -- they didn't get shot up in the places that would bring them down.<br /><br />They didn't do anything. They simply survived a die roll. <br /><br />You're doing exactly what I wrote: "you think the survivors did something special to survive when it's often just blind luck."GuyReviewshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17270600804829601202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7600505010903219424.post-14302224362820201742020-11-17T03:55:52.701-08:002020-11-17T03:55:52.701-08:00"'survivorship bias', in that you thi..."'survivorship bias', in that you think the survivors did something special to survive when it's often just blind luck."<br /><br />You're mixing two different topics. The planes that made it back DID do something right -- they didn't get shot up in the places that would bring them down. <br /><br />The fact that pure statistical chance determines where they got shot is irrelevant to the mitigation strategy. Whether it's luck or not, armoring the areas which didn't get shot up, as recommended by Wald, would STILL be the better strategy. <br /><br />Survivorship bias would be: If the generals didn't armor ANY part of the planes, because they assumed it had nothing to do with armor, and everything to do with the skill of the pilots. jwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06390114090702035500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7600505010903219424.post-92094051333750145192014-06-12T22:37:27.162-07:002014-06-12T22:37:27.162-07:00The problem is often in MLM, quite a bit of the co...The problem is often in MLM, quite a bit of the compensation depends on recruiting, even though it's not explicitly stated as such (because that'd be illegal). <br /><br />If you are selling the same stuff as 10000 other affiliates, what value are *you* adding to the product to make the customers want to buy it from you, rather than your upline / downline / sales group? You don't even have geographic exclusivity any more with advent of internet. <br /><br />So I don't disagree with you, Darren, but I think most MLM noobs never thought about the part about "adding value". NOR DO THEY look at the odds. Yet if they don't "improve" their odds, then they are indeed playing the lottery, and the more they recruit, the more likely they'll hit a jackpot. <br /><br />THAT is the dangerous mentality I'm trying to explain. AND that sort of recruitment driven mentality is what turns a normal network marketing group into a pyramid scheme. You no longer try to sell... you are recruiting, and you've convinced yourself that you're selling the opportunity. That is a dangerous delusion. GuyReviewshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17270600804829601202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7600505010903219424.post-87822379319473025432014-06-12T20:06:13.829-07:002014-06-12T20:06:13.829-07:00Building a business is not like buying a lottery, ...Building a business is not like buying a lottery, it does not depends on odds and chances.<br />This applied if you are building a traditional or MLM business.<br /><br />In MLM business (and any other business), you get paid if you move a product/service to a customer or the team that you build doing the same. You don't get paid to go to power up meeting, to stare at the phone and afraid of making calls. Heck, you don't even get paid by talking to people about your product/business.<br /><br />You only get paid when there is a business transaction. But all those activities above might leads you to that goals. <br /><br />Once you understand this, you must figure out if the product deliver values to the customer (will the customer buy the product if it is not marketed thru MLM?). You must also figure out the profit that you are going to make if transaction took place, will it make it worthwhile for your resources invested?<br /><br />That's how you evaluate the business.Darrenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383098390818736412noreply@blogger.com